2030 universal education target now out of reach — UNESCO

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation has warned that the global ambition of achieving universal education by 2030 is increasingly out of reach, as new data shows that 272million children, adolescents and youths remain out of school worldwide.

The warning is contained in the 2026 Global Education Monitoring Report on Access and Equity, launched at UNESCO Headquarters in Paris, which reviews global progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 4 and tracks countries’ performance against international education commitments.

The full report released on Thursday showed that successive global education goals had consistently outpaced the capacity of education systems to deliver.

“The three major global education agendas increased levels of ambition faster than education systems could expand, promising universal access to primary education in 1990, universal completion of primary education in 2000, and universal completion of secondary education in 2015.

Not even the first will have been achieved by 2030,” the report stated.

It noted that while the 2030 deadline for universal education is now unlikely to be met, the failure should not be interpreted as a collapse of progress, pointing instead to uneven but significant gains in access.

“Countries will not achieve access for all by 2030, but this does not mean that the global education agenda has failed,” the report said.

According to the findings, global enrolment has expanded substantially over the past two decades, with 1.4 billion students now in school worldwide.

“There are 327 million more students, or 30 per cent, in schools today than in 2000. There are 45 per cent more in pre-schools and 161 per cent more in colleges and universities,” it added.

Despite this expansion, the report revealed that exclusion remains widespread and persistent, with the number of out-of-school children, adolescents and youth continuing to rise in recent years.

“After falling by 33 per cent between 2000 and 2015, the out-of-school population has risen for a seventh year in a row, up 3 per cent since 2015 and reaching 273 million in 2024. This means that one in six children, adolescents and youth worldwide are excluded from education,” the report warned.

It further cautioned that the figure may even be higher when accounting for conflict-affected regions.

“This population is undercounted by at least 13 million if supplementary information from humanitarian sources is used to correct data gaps in the 10 countries most affected by conflict,” it noted.

The GEM Report, the first in a three-part Countdown to 2030 series, focuses on access and equity, stressing that progress in education has become increasingly difficult as countries move from expanding enrolment to sustaining completion and quality.

It was observed that many countries have achieved significant reforms, including legal and policy frameworks that promote inclusion, reduce barriers to schooling and support disadvantaged groups.

However, it warned that global education progress is now slowing, particularly since 2015, even as expectations continue to rise.

“Since 2015, progress in reducing out-of-school rates has slowed across all regions,” it stated.

On completion rates, the report noted improvements but warned they remain insufficient to guarantee universal secondary education in the foreseeable future.

“Since 2000, the completion rate has increased from 77 per cent to 88 per cent in primary, from 60 per cent to 78 per cent in lower secondary, and from 37 per cent to 61 per cent in upper secondary,” it said.

However, it projected a far slower trajectory for full global completion.

“At current rates of expansion, the world would achieve 95 per cent upper secondary completion by 2105,” the report warned.

The report also highlighted persistent inequalities, particularly in low-income countries where children are more likely to start school late and repeat grades, delaying completion and widening disparities.

It stressed that measuring progress requires better tools and context-sensitive analysis, arguing that global indicators often mask inequality rather than reveal it.

Despite the grim outlook on global targets, the report identified areas of policy progress, including increased use of inclusive education laws and expanded financing mechanisms targeting disadvantaged groups.

Still, it found that fewer than one in 10 countries has a strong equity-focused education policy framework.

Commenting on the report, UNESCO Director-General Khaled El-Enany described the findings as alarming but said progress made since 2000 proves that change is still possible.

“This report confirms an alarming trend, with more and more young people deprived of education around the world each year. However, there is hope,” he said.

“Since the year 2000, enrolment in primary and secondary education has increased overall by 30 per cent, and many countries are making meaningful progress.”

Commenting on the report, Director of the GEM Report, Manos Antoninis, said future global targets must reflect national realities rather than impose uniform expectations.

“National targets must be both ambitious and rooted in what is genuinely achievable. Global targets should then be the sum of these commitments, not the other way around,” he said.

Commenting on the report on Thursday, UNESCO Director-General Khaled El-Enany lamented that the report confirms an alarming trend, with more and more young people deprived of education around the world each year.

However, he said, there was hope.

Khaled said, “Since the year 2000, enrolment in primary and secondary education has increased overall by 30 per cent, and many countries are making meaningful progress.

“UNESCO remains fully mobilised to collaborate with governments and partners to expand learning opportunities for all, in ways that respond to local realities and give every learner a fair chance to build their future.”

The launch brought together education ministers and policymakers from across the world, including representatives from China, Italy, Uzbekistan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Madagascar, who discussed policy responses to widening access gaps.

UNESCO said the findings should serve as a warning to governments and development partners that without accelerated action, the world risks missing its most important education targets for another generation, even as millions of children remain locked out of classrooms.