Fifa World Cup matches set to be held across the United States face heightened terrorism risks, with experts warning that vulnerabilities are being amplified by the US-Israel conflict with Iran and a depletion of counter-terrorism expertise within federal law enforcement.
- +Fifa World Cup matches face heightened terror risk in US amid Iran conflict
The biggest threat stems from homegrown violent extremists, often lone actors that may have become radicalized online by extreme political views or jihadists such as the Islamic State (Isis), said four counter-terror experts interviewed.
The biggest threat stems from homegrown violent extremists, often lone actors that may have become radicalized online by extreme political views or jihadists such as the Islamic State (Isis), said four counter-terror experts interviewed.
“We need to protect not only each venue, but all the other links in the chain that get to the point of the game,” said Javed Ali, associate professor at the University of Michigan, who previously served in the FBI, Department of Homeland Security, and as national security council senior director for counter-terrorism. “There are just so many games. There’s only so many resources to deploy to try to buy down risk against a number of different threats.”
In March, the FBI held a large residential training exercise on domestic threats, bringing together agents from across the country who work in domestic terrorism ahead of major national security events such as the World Cup.
When FBI agents at the meeting discussed the scale and complexity of securing the tournament, they were “alarmed, because there’s a lot that needs to be dealt with”, said one member of federal law enforcement in attendance, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “It will be hard to control, given the environment and the number of locations of matches and watch parties across the United States. There is a very real possibility that something bad will happen.”
Although the US is experienced in securing large-scale stadium events such as the NFL Super Bowl, experts say the sheer number of World Cup matches will require an unprecedented level of coordination, vigilance and stamina.
The tournament will be about six weeks long, with 104 matches in the US, Canada and Mexico. The US will host 78 matches, in Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, Philadelphia, the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle and East Rutherford, New Jersey, which is about 10 miles from Manhattan.
The Department of Homeland Security has announced that only the final – which will be at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford – will be designated as a ‘national special security event’ (NSSE).
The designation triggers a centralized federal operation led by the United States Secret Service, with intelligence from the FBI and emergency coordination by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema). It includes hardened security perimeters, magnetometer screening, temporary flight restrictions enforced by the Federal Aviation Administration, counter-drone systems and continuous counter-terrorism monitoring across federal, state and local agencies.
The other matches will be designated a special event assessment rating (SEAR) 1 or 2, which are the two highest risk rankings for events and also require the deployment of federal law enforcement.
Fema has allocated $625m to support security and emergency preparedness for the World Cup. While all stadiums hosting matches are considered “hard targets” due to extensive security measures, counter-terrorism experts say the greater concern lies with “soft targets” – including hotels, transportation hubs and fan gatherings across the country.
“Planning to protect the Fifa World Cup 2026 has been going on for many months and the FBI continues to work closely with our federal, state, and local law enforcement partners. The games are taking place around the country and require the work of many partners to ensure the safety of those in the stadiums, as well as the surrounding communities,” an FBI spokesperson said in a statement to the Guardian.
A spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security said: “DHS is working around the clock with our federal, state, and local law enforcement partners to identify and mitigate potential threats to World Cup matches, fan fests, and to a travel sector that will see a dramatic increase in traffic. DHS is cognizant of lone wolves and small cells inspired to commit violence, as the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis is working closely with state, local, tribal, territorial, and private sector partners to keep them apprised of the latest and most relevant threat information available.”
All 11 host cities will host official Fifa fan festivals, with large-screen broadcasts, concerts and live entertainment running throughout the tournament. Thousands of additional watch parties at bars and venues across the host countries will extend crowds well beyond stadiums and official sites.
“We’re still going to have densely populated crowds waiting outside of stadiums. There will be the vulnerability of drones, which are ubiquitous, easily mastered by individuals or non-state groups, including terrorist groups,” said Colin Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Group, an intelligence and security consulting firm based in New York City.
Experts say the challenge is not only protecting potential targets, but ensuring coordination across the agencies responsible for securing them.
“What I’ve seen is that we have lapses in our security when different agencies, such as Homeland Security, FBI, and our regional local police officers, fail to communicate with each other,” said Tracy Walder, a former CIA and FBI special agent who was working at the CIA in 2001 during the 9/11 attacks. “That’s probably our biggest problem.”
The 2024 assassination attempt against Donald Trump on the campaign trail in Butler, Pennsylvania, and the 6 January 2022 fatal siege on the Capitol in Washington DC were examples of these types of communications breakdowns, she said.
The World Cup is especially vulnerable because of the current conflict with Iran, which has historically been linked to attempted attacks on US targets, said the experts interviewed.
The potential for an Iran v United States match in Texas on 3 July on the eve of Independence Day, coupled with the expected heavy presence of the Saudi royal family, who have booked out an entire hotel in Houston for the tournament, raises additional concerns, said the federal law enforcement source. Saudi Arabia and Iran are longstanding regional rivals with a history of deep geopolitical and sectarian tensions.
“You have the Saudi royal family in close proximity to where Iran and the United States would be playing, it’s like adding gas on the fires,” said the source.
Yet, concerns over so-called “sleeper cells” – foreign terrorists that are embedded in the country and stay dormant for a period of time before launching an attack – may be overblown, some experts said.
