Rising insecurity: Experts, veterans raise alarm as Nigeria heads toward 2027

As Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 general election, fresh insights from security stakeholders reveal a complex and evolving threat landscape, with experts and retired military personnel offering differing but complementary perspectives on the causes, scale, and implications of insecurity across the country.

While a State Commander of the Nigeria forests guard, Larry Igwe, pointed to socio-economic pressures, governance gaps, and logistics challenges, the Chairman of the Nigeria Legion, Ebonyi State Council, Retired Corporal Okechukwu Ijeagwu, has raised deeper concerns over rising violence, weak border control, and the potential political manipulation of insecurity.

Divergent views on scale of violence

On the scale of killings, both experts offer contrasting assessments.

Igwe maintained that while insecurity remains widespread, killings in some regions may not be significantly higher than in 2025, noting variations across states and modest improvements in parts of the South-East.

However, Okechukwu painted a more alarming picture, describing 2026 as a year of unprecedented escalation.

“2026 has never been like every other year. The scale of killings has increased. They kill women, children, even pregnant,” he said, estimating that violence has risen by “up to 90 percent” in parts of the North and about “70percent” in the South-East.

He cited incidents across states such as Benue, Zamfara, Katsina, and parts of Ebonyi as evidence of a widening security crisis.

Spread of insecurity across regions

Both stakeholders agreed that insecurity is no longer confined to traditional hotspots.

Igwe described Nigeria’s security challenge as “networked,” with criminal elements moving across regions, contributing to the spread from the North-East into the Middle Belt and South-East.

Similarly, Okechukwu noted that insurgency, once largely associated with in the North-East, has expanded geographically.

“Before, it was limited to the North-East, but today it has spread to other states like Katsina, Zamfara, and even parts of the Middle Belt,” he said.

Root Causes: Poverty, ideology, and porous borders

On causative factors, both experts highlighted socio-economic issues, but with different emphases.

Igwe pointed to unemployment, hunger, ethnic divisions, and what he described as “greed and lack of contentment” as drivers of violence.

In contrast, Okechukwu stressed lack of education and ideological manipulation, particularly among vulnerable youth.

“When young people are not educated, they can be misled into believing violence is justified. That is part of what is fueling insecurity,” he said.

He also raised concerns about Nigeria’s border management, describing it as weak and porous.

“We don’t have effective border control. People move in and out without checks. Some of those causing trouble are not even Nigerians,” he alleged.

Operational challenges and troop welfare

On the capacity of security agencies, both voices converged on a critical issue: inadequate logistics and poor welfare.

Larry Igwe emphasised the difficulty of responding to threats without vehicles, communication equipment, and access to remote areas, especially forests and rural communities.

“Sometimes intelligence is available, but without logistics, response is delayed,” he noted.

The Nigeria legion boss went further, linking operational inefficiency to low morale among security personnel.

“They are not well fed, not properly equipped, and sometimes not adequately supported. A hungry soldier cannot fight effectively,” he said.

He also cited internal issues such as perceived unfair promotions within the military and security services, arguing that such practices could undermine discipline and commitment.

“When juniors are promoted ahead of seniors without clear justification, it demoralises the system,” he added.

A major point of concern is the potential impact of insecurity on the 2027 elections.

While Igwe expressed cautious optimism that the elections would hold, urging government to “do more,” Okechukwu warned that insecurity could significantly disrupt the process if not addressed.

“There are places today where you cannot even conduct elections. People are in IDP camps. Voting under such conditions can be manipulated,” he said.

He further alleged that political actors might exploit insecurity to influence electoral outcomes, either by suppressing voting in volatile areas or leveraging humanitarian conditions.

Community security and the role of veterans

Both experts advocated stronger integration of local and community-based security structures.

Igwe called for formal recognition and support for the local outfits, citing its grassroots intelligence capabilities.

Similarly, Okechukwu highlighted the potential role of the legion, a statutory body of retired military personnel from the Army, Navy, and Air Force.

“We have the experience, the training, and presence across local governments. If supported, we can contribute significantly to internal security,” he said.

He explained that beyond retired officers, the Legion also operates a Corps of Commissioners, comprising able-bodied civilians recruited to support security efforts, particularly in community-level operations.

Beyond national security, Okechukwu raised concerns about the welfare of retired servicemen, many of whom face health and financial challenges.

He called for improved access to healthcare through the at the grassroots level, noting that many veterans cannot afford travel to tertiary hospitals.

“These men served the country for decades. They deserve accessible healthcare and support,” he said.

He also appealed for government assistance in completing a Legion facility in Ebonyi State, aimed at generating sustainable income for the organisation.

With reports of continued attacks in parts of Niger, Borno, Plateau, and Ebonyi states, analysts warn that Nigeria faces a critical period where security challenges intersect with economic pressures and political uncertainty.

While government efforts have been acknowledged, both experts agree that more coordinated, inclusive, and well-resourced strategies are needed.

As nationwide data on insecurity between January and April 2026 continues to emerge, the question remains whether decisive action will be taken in time to stabilise the country ahead of a pivotal election cycle.

For now, the message from both security experts and veterans is clear: Nigeria cannot afford complacency in the face of a rapidly shifting security landscape.