Nigeria’s FX market hits record $4.4 billion, mystery deals fuel speculation

Nigeria’s foreign exchange market crossed the $4 billion mark in weekly turnover for the first time in 2026, with total transactions in the FX Spot and Derivatives markets surging 83.38% to $4.375 billion in the week ended July 24, 2026, up from $2.386 billion in the previous week.

This is according to the latest weekly FX market turnover report which Nairametrics obtained from FMDQ Exchange.

The milestone comes just three weeks after the market posted what was then described as its strongest weekly turnover in about three months, at $3.053 billion for the week ended July 3, 2026.

Analysts say it may have been driven by large private-sector transactions and increased foreign portfolio inflows.

But an insider at Financial Market Dealers Association (FMDA) who didn’t want to be mentioned specifically linked the unprecedented weekly surge in dollar turnover to Dangote Refinery’s policy of selling petroleum products in dollars but which was later reversed.

There were remarkable increases across segments during the week under review with FX Spot and Derivatives jumping by unprecedented margins.

The scale of the increase — a $1.99 billion week-on-week increase — dwarfs anything recorded so far this year. Prior weekly turnover figures through H1 and into July had moved in a comparatively narrow band:

The week ended July 24 is the first to breach the $4 billion threshold. “You know there was temporary dollar pricing for Dangote Refinery products. This is the reason for the sharp rise in dollar turnover,” said the FX market dealer on condition of anonymity.

Nairametrics notes that weekly turnover had been climbing steadily through Q3, from roughly $2.1 billion in mid-June to $3.05 billion by early July, but the leap to $4.38 billion represents a much larger step-change than the market’s recent trajectory.

The Chief Executive Officer of Wyoming Capital Partners Limited, Mr. Tajudeen Olayinka, added more insights:

Given the timing, it is plausible that Dangote Refinery’s temporary decision to price petroleum products in U.S. dollars, which lasted for about a week before being reversed, contributed to the surge by boosting demand for foreign exchange and encouraging increased hedging activity.

The week’s record FX turnover coincided with a brief policy shift by Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which announced on 14 July 2026 that it would begin pricing petrol, diesel and aviation fuel in U.S. dollars, replacing its naira-denominated pricing framework.

The July 24 figure eclipses the previous 2026 high of $3.053 billion recorded in the week ended July 3, which itself had been described as the market’s strongest weekly showing in three months. It also follows a volatile stretch in which turnover fell to $1.631 billion before rebounding 46.27% to $2.386 billion the following week.