EU Raises Red Flags Over Ekiti Poll, Warns of Apathy and Vote Trading

EU Report warns voter disengagement, economic hardship and party disputes could shape the June 20 governorship election.

A pre-election assessment report by the European Union Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria (EU-SDGN) has raised concerns over voter apathy, vote trading, party crises and unresolved litigations ahead of the June 20, 2026, governorship election in Ekiti State, even as it tipped the exercise to be peaceful but largely uncompetitive.

The report also projected Governor Abiodun Oyebanji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the clear frontrunner in the election, citing incumbency advantage, elite political backing and a weakened opposition plagued by internal divisions and leadership crises.

In the report titled ‘Ekiti State Off-Cycle Governorship Election Pre-Assessment Report,’ the EU-SDGN stated that while the political atmosphere in the state remained calm, worsening economic conditions and public frustration over living conditions could influence voter turnout and encourage vote buying.

“There is a high possibility that the election will be peaceful based on the generally calm and positive situational outlook prevailing in the state. Most of the pre-election activities have so far been carried out without any serious security threat, breach of the peace or violence,” the report said.

The report warned that “the political economy of the state, with an increasing public disaffection over poor living conditions, may influence voter turnout and encourage vote trading.”

The report noted that, despite the peaceful outlook, the election was widely perceived as lacking competitiveness due to the incumbent governor’s overwhelming structural advantages.

“The general perception in the state is that the election will not be competitive due to the residual advantage of incumbency and elite consensus among major actors in the ruling and opposition parties in favour of the sitting governor; resource disequilibrium between the ruling party and the opposition parties, as well as internal contradictions and leadership crisis within opposition parties,” it stated.

According to the assessment, Governor Oyebanji and the APC currently enjoy political dominance in the state, reinforced by support from influential political figures and party structures.

The report described the APC as “the strongest political party in Ekiti State,” noting that Oyebanji’s campaign was anchored on his “Shared Prosperity Agenda,” focused on continuity in governance, infrastructure development, economic growth, job creation, education and healthcare.

While the report acknowledged some internal disagreements within the APC arising from governorship ambitions and political appointments, it said the ruling party remained significantly stronger than its challengers.

On the opposition, the report painted a picture of fragmentation and weakness, especially within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which it said remained trapped in factional disputes and leadership crises.

It was observed that unresolved tensions from party primaries and candidate nomination processes had resulted in litigation that may still shape the election environment.

“The unresolved issues and tensions within the political parties, including the ruling party, as a result of the fall-out from the party primaries and candidate nominating process, have led to various litigations as the aggrieved candidates are seeking redress, albeit through established institutional processes,” the report said.

It added: “The unpredictable outcome of these litigations could still alter the list of candidates for the election.”

The report further warned of growing voter apathy fuelled by public perceptions that the election outcome may already be predetermined.

It noted that while Ekiti voters are traditionally politically aware and active, “current trends indicate growing apathy and disengagement, driven by perceptions of predetermined outcomes, economic hardship and distrust in political actors.”

Despite the concerns, the report expressed confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Ekiti’s capacity to organise a credible poll, citing the experience of electoral officials in the state.