World Bank says Nigeria can’t afford to miss AI revolution

Nigeria cannot afford to miss the artificial intelligence revolution or risk widening the economic gap with countries that successfully harness the technology, Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s Chief Economist, said.

Gill said developing countries, including Nigeria, should approach artificial intelligence with optimism, arguing that the technology presents a major opportunity to improve productivity, strengthen public services and accelerate economic growth.

Speaking at the 7th Africa Emerging Markets Forum in Abuja co-organised by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Emerging Markets Forum and the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA), Gill said fears surrounding AI’s impact on jobs and inequality in advanced economies should not be directly applied to developing countries, where the technology could complement workers and small businesses rather than replace them.

“There is a danger that countries like Nigeria, countries like India and others, will miss this industrial revolution,” Gill said in his keynote speech, which focused on Artificial Intelligence and Economic Development. “You have to remember, you have to look around yourself and say, what happened when you missed the industrial revolution? You ended up being behind for 200 years.”

The World Bank economist said AI’s impact would not be uniform across economies, noting that developing countries have different labour markets, business structures and development challenges.

According to Gill, AI could help countries such as Nigeria improve delivery of essential services including healthcare, education, agriculture and judicial systems, particularly through predictive AI applications that use data to forecast outcomes and improve decision-making.

He said developing economies should focus less on trying to compete with leading AI developers such as the United States and China and instead prioritise adapting existing technologies to local needs.

“Adaptation has to be the big part of the strategy,” Gill said, adding that countries should pursue a three-pronged approach of adopting, adapting and advancing AI technologies.

He said AI differs from previous general-purpose technologies such as electricity and computers because it is more context-specific and requires countries to tailor applications to their own economic realities.

Gill said Nigeria and other emerging markets should focus on areas where AI can deliver the greatest returns, including improving agricultural productivity, expanding access to healthcare and reducing administrative bottlenecks in public institutions.

He cited examples from developing economies where AI is already producing measurable results, including agricultural applications in India, judicial reforms in Kenya and healthcare improvements in Bangladesh.

The World Bank economist said AI could also help reverse slowing global growth trends, noting that productivity gains from the technology could potentially return growth rates closer to levels recorded before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Global growth has slowed from about 3.2% in the decade before Covid-19 to an estimated 2.5% currently, while emerging markets and developing economies have seen growth decline from about 5.2% to 3.6%, he said.

Gill said the benefits of AI would depend heavily on government policy choices, including investments in infrastructure, skills and digital systems.

He urged governments to focus on creating conditions that allow businesses and innovators to use AI effectively rather than concentrating only on regulation.

“A lot of this, how much it actually leads to in terms of productivity improvements, is something that depends on policy choices,” Gill said. “So it’s not a given.”

He said governments should prioritise interoperability, allowing countries to use technologies developed in different parts of the world rather than pursuing costly attempts at technological self-sufficiency.

For Nigeria, Gill said building AI capacity would require investments in digital infrastructure, human capital and institutions capable of supporting innovation.

The World Bank is preparing its World Development Report on artificial intelligence, which Gill said would provide evidence from developing economies and help reshape debates around AI beyond the experiences of advanced countries.

He said the report would show that developing countries should not view AI only as a threat but as a tool for improving productivity and expanding economic opportunities.

Gill further stated that countries which fail to engage with AI risk falling further behind as the technology reshapes the global economy.

“AI strategies require making some choices,” he said, urging developing economies to focus on practical adaptation, targeted investments and applications that deliver measurable benefits.