ADC convention move carries high stakes for 2027 elections

Observers say the decision of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to proceed with its national convention despite the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) refusal to recognise the David Mark leadership sets the stage for a deepening internal crisis that could weaken the party ahead of the 2027 general election.

This move could significantly impair the prospect of a broad coalition that could mount the most serious challenge yet to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid, especially as the three leading challengers in the 2023 presidential race — Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso —rallied around the ADC ahead of the 2027 elections.

At the centre of the controversy is a suit filed by Nafiu Bala Gombe, a former deputy national chairman of the party, challenging the legitimacy of the current leadership structure and arguing that it was not properly constituted in line with the party’s constitution and internal organs, particularly the National Executive Committee (NEC).

While party insiders maintain that the issue is more procedural than factional, the litigation has generated conflicting judicial interpretations, prompting INEC to de-recognise the Mark-led national leadership.

INEC’s de-recognition effectively means that any decisions, candidates, or leadership structures emerging from the convention risk being legally challenged.

This opens the door to prolonged litigation, a familiar pattern in Nigeria’s electoral cycle, which could drain the party’s resources and distract from mobilisation efforts.

However, party leaders told BusinessDay that the decision to proceed with the national convention should not be misconstrued as an act of defiance, but rather as a demonstration of institutional maturity and commitment to internal democratic processes.

“Political parties, by their very nature, are guided by their constitutions, internal mechanisms, and the collective will of their members.

While INEC, as a regulatory body, plays an important oversight role, it does not substitute the sovereign authority of party structures in managing internal affairs, including leadership questions and conventions,” Olalekan Anjolaiya, a chieftain of the ADC, said.

Anjolaiya stressed that the convention represents an opportunity to consolidate unity, provide clarity, and allow party members across all levels to democratically reaffirm their leadership and direction, rather than deepen any perceived crisis.

However, political analysts warn that moving ahead under a disputed leadership may produce parallel structures within the party. Factions loyal to different leaders could organise separate primaries or conventions, leading to confusion over authentic candidates.

In such scenarios, courts, not party organs, often determine who flies the party’s flag, sometimes close to election deadlines.

There is also the risk of disqualification. If candidates emerge from a process not recognised by INEC, opposing parties may challenge their eligibility, potentially knocking the ADC out of key races before votes are cast.

Under the Electoral Act 2026, Section 84(1) requires INEC to monitor political party primaries, mandating that parties nominate candidates through primaries conducted in the presence of the commission.

Section 88(3) further provides sanctions for non-compliance, empowering INEC to exclude a party’s candidate from an election if statutory requirements are not met.

There are fears among party members and observers that if the issues are not resolved, ADC candidates could face disqualification or a repeat of the Zamfara State elections crisis in 2019, where internal party disputes led to the loss of electoral victories.

Tosin Oguntele, political pundit, said that if allegations of INEC working with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to destabilise the opposition are true, then any outcome of congresses and the national convention could be voided by the electoral umpire.

“It is a difficult situation for ADC. Except there is a court ruling that counters INEC’s decision—and the electoral body obeys it—no one can say what would happen. It could throw the entire electoral process into chaos,” he said.

Speaking recently, Ralph Nwosu, a chieftain of the ADC and former national chairman, said the party would continue preparations for its convention and plans ahead of 2027.

“We are taking the necessary action both in court and with INEC, but we will not allow INEC to derail any of our programmes. After that release, our chairman and the rest of us sat together and decided to move ahead,” he said.

According to him, the party submitted its programme to INEC in line with the law, and the commission initially endorsed the dates. “By the electoral law, whether they show up or not is their own volition; we have not violated anything,” he added.

Other party members argue that delaying the convention would signal weakness and embolden rival factions, noting that the exercise is necessary to reposition the ADC for 2027.

But observers disagree, warning that the move could backfire.

“You cannot build on illegality and expect stability,” a lawyer who did not want to be named said. “If INEC does not recognise the leadership, every outcome of that convention is on shaky ground.”

The development reflects a broader pattern in Nigeria’s party politics, where internal disputes and leadership tussles often undermine electoral competitiveness.

Without a quick resolution, the ADC risks entering the 2027 race divided, litigated, and significantly weakened.

Shola Itunu, political analyst, said the crisis could have been avoided if INEC had remained neutral, warning that if not properly handled, it could throw the electoral process into chaos ahead of 2027.

The analyst added that INEC’s recognition will ultimately determine whether the ADC remains viable or becomes another casualty of pre-election fragmentation.

Dayo Kayode, a chieftain of the African ADC, in an interview with BusinessDay, dismissed claims of a deepening crisis, insisting the party’s decision to proceed with its convention would ultimately strengthen its internal cohesion and Nigeria’s democratic process.

He argued that the leadership transition from Nwosu to Mark followed due process, with proper resignations, INEC’s presence, and statutory notices duly observed.

Kayode questioned the legal basis of the challenge, warning that attempts to halt the convention risk undermining the rule of law and handing undue advantage to the APC ahead of the 2027 election.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has fixed today to hear an appeal filed by Mark against a suit by Bala challenging his leadership.

In the appeal marked SC/CV/180/2026, Mark is seeking an order staying the execution of the Court of Appeal ruling delivered on March 12, which nullified his leadership.