If Plaid win in Wales, that won't mean independence - at least not yet

In a further education college in the Pembrokeshire town of Haverfordwest, a studio audience had gathered to hear leaders of Wales' political parties make their pitch at a BBC Wales Ask the Leaders debate.

After an audience member asked Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth about independence, presenter Nick Servini followed up with a question about whether the party's plans for Welsh independence had been "paused".

Ap Iorwerth replied: "Do I sound as if I've paused on my ambition for Wales or my belief that this isn't as good as things could be for Wales? No, my situation on this has been the same, life-long. It's a question for the people of Wales.

"How brave we want to be, how far we want to go."

Take a closer look at the question and a closer look at the answer.

The question is about independence; the answer does not include that word.

The polls suggest that two diametrically opposed parties - Plaid Cymru and Reform, who are pro and anti-independence respectively - are vying to lead the Welsh government for the first time.

During this election, independence has certainly been part of the conversation - with claims that it is "the normal state for any nation", or "unaffordable", bandied about by either side. But it has not dominated the campaign. And there is an odd dynamic at play: the Welsh pro-indy parties tend to be talking about it less than those who are against it.

On the campaign trail, the parties are weighing up whether the issue of Welsh independence is a vote winner or loser.

As far as independence is concerned, the big question is: what would happen to the cause if Plaid Cymru wins and ap Iorwerth becomes first minister? And were that to happen, supposing the pro-indy Greens won enough seats that there became a majority in the Senedd in favour of Wales breaking away from the rest of the UK?

In the hunt for votes, politicians of all stripes are trying to convince the public that their forecast of what would happen or not happen is the correct one.

Plaid's position on independence is clear. The second line of its constitution says: "As the National Party of Wales, the Party's aims shall be: to secure independence for Wales in Europe."

But party figures have consistently said that this is not an independence election.

The word was absent from ap Iorwerth's February conference speech and what was said at April's manifesto launch in Wrexham the morning after the Haverfordwest leaders debate, although a commitment to next steps towards that ultimate goal did appear in the document itself.

Plaid's opponents claim that if it wins, it will pursue independence "by stealth" or through the "back door" and also warn that Wales could not afford it. The Greens also seem reticent to mention the "I" word unprompted. It does not appear in their Senedd election manifesto.

Welsh leader Anthony Slaughter told the BBC that he "won't shy away" from independence but believes the issue is "not front and centre of this campaign". Slaughter suggested that talk of an independence referendum during this campaign would be "divisive" and hand the initiative to Reform.

He added that the cost-of-living crisis had to be the focus of the next four years. Both pro-independence parties also say the NHS, housing and a better deal for Wales under the current constitutional settlement are more important at the moment than the question of independence.

Plaid's next steps involve a National Commission, costing half a million pounds from the Welsh government's £27bn budget, that would "lay the foundation" of a future independence plan.

The party had already decided not to present a formal plan for independence during a first term in office - in contrast to the 2021 campaign, when then-leader Adam Price promised a referendum within five years.

In 2021 Plaid came third behind Labour and the Welsh Conservatives and shortly after taking over as leader in 2023 ap Iorwerth said that there would be no timetable.

But Labour, which argues for a stronger Wales within the UK, insists its rival remains as committed to independence as ever. First Minister Eluned Morgan has warned that "separatism is now very much on the agenda in our nation".

But Labour is facing a threat on all sides, with polling analysis suggesting it is losing voters to Plaid, the Greens and to a lesser extent Reform. In a speech to the Institute for Government in January she said: "Support for independence tends to rise when politics feels stuck or uncertain, and it falls when people see devolution deliver."

"Devolution is the best way to lower the temperature and raise trust."

After more than a century of Westminster and Senedd elections in which it has been the biggest party, Labour is in danger of losing that status.

Now it is facing serious questions about its record, especially on the biggest area of Welsh government spending - the NHS. The health service regularly appears in the top three concerns for voters, according to the You Gov issue tracker.

Shortly after taking over as leader in 2024, Eluned Morgan made cutting waiting lists her top priority and is trying to gain political ground in highlighting that they have been falling for months. Her problem is that they are still high.

As for Labour's handling of devolution, especially since a Labour government took over in Westminster in 2024, there are questions over how well it has lowered that temperature mentioned by Morgan in her January speech.

A long list of Welsh Labour demands for more powers, such as devolution of the Crown Estate - the body that is responsible for much of the seabed around Wales, and vital to the development of floating offshore wind-power - and policing, as well as reform of how Wales is funded, has not been granted by its UK Labour colleagues.

While Welsh Labour is keen to extol the virtues of two Labour governments working together, citing the development of new nuclear power on Anglesey, rail infrastructure spending and what it describes as record levels of funding, its opponents say it does not get a good enough deal out of its colleagues in London - and when it doesn't get what it asks for, its opponents claim it is weak.

A row over the lack of specific Welsh funding from the HS2 high speed rail project has become politically totemic.

Plaid makes much the same demands as Labour but tells voters that it will press for a better deal.

Welsh Labour accuses Plaid of trying to move Wales towards independence by stealth. A source described Plaid's National Commission as "an independence commission in all but name".

So how serious really is Plaid about independence going in to this election?

"I believe that the normal state for any nation is to be independent. I passionately believe that that is true for Wales," ap Iorwerth said.