A new global analysis has revealed that about 1.3 billion people, representing 16.1 per cent of the world’s population, were living with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in 2023, with the number projected to rise to 1.8 billion by 2050 if current trends continue.
- +Global fatty liver disease cases may reach 1.8 billion by 2050 – Study
The findings, published as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023 and funded by the Gates Foundation, showed that the number of people living with the condition increased by more than 140 per cent since 1990, highlighting a growing public health challenge driven largely by rising obesity, high blood sugar, and smoking.
The findings, published as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023 and funded by the Gates Foundation, showed that the number of people living with the condition increased by more than 140 per cent since 1990, highlighting a growing public health challenge driven largely by rising obesity, high blood sugar, and smoking.
Researchers noted that the disease is already contributing significantly to ill health globally, accounting for an estimated 3.6 million disability-adjusted life years in 2023, with poorer countries bearing a heavier burden due to weaker healthcare systems and limited access to quality care.
Metabolically-dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, is characterised by an abnormal accumulation of fat in the liver in people who drink little or no alcohol and is closely linked to obesity, type 2 diabetes, and metabolic syndrome.
If left unmanaged, it can progress to more severe liver conditions, including cirrhosis and liver cancer.
PUNCH Healthwise earlier reported that low awareness was threatening the fight against liver diseases, including hepatitis, fatty liver disease, liver cirrhosis, and liver cancer.
Experts in the report also emphasised that modern lifestyles, characterised by frequent consumption of processed foods, alcohol, sugary drinks, and late-night eating, are placing more Nigerians at risk of metabolic dysfunction-associated liver disease.
Observed annually on April 19, World Liver Day aims to highlight that liver diseases are largely preventable through simple lifestyle changes. The theme for 2026 is “Solid Habits, Strong Liver.”
The researchers analysed data across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, tracking prevalence rates, disability-adjusted life years, and the contribution of key modifiable risk factors, including high blood sugar, obesity, and smoking, before projecting future trends to 2050.
The study found that high fasting plasma glucose, a marker of elevated blood sugar and diabetes risk, was the single largest contributor to the disease burden, followed by high body mass index and smoking, identifying all three as critical targets for prevention efforts.
The researchers further projected that cases could rise to 1.8 billion by 2050, a 42 per cent increase, with population growth, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, identified as the main driver of the surge, raising concerns about the future economic and health impact of the disease.
The study also found consistent differences between sexes, with males recording higher age-standardised prevalence rates of 15,616.4 per 100,000 in 2023, compared with 13,245.2 per 100,000 for females.
While the disease peaked in prevalence at ages 80 to 84 in both sexes, the highest number of cases was concentrated in younger adults, peaking at ages 35 to 39 for males and 55 to 59 for females, underscoring the condition’s impact on working-age populations.
Despite the sharp rise in total case numbers, the age-standardised rate of disability and death attributable to the disease remained broadly stable between 1990 and 2023, a finding researchers attributed in part to improvements in healthcare access in some regions.
However, the study noted an inverse relationship between healthcare access and quality and disease burden, meaning that countries with weaker health systems tended to bear a disproportionately higher toll from the condition.
The study’s authors warned that countries with lower healthcare access and quality are less well positioned to manage the growing burden, calling for urgent investment in health system capacity, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, where population growth is expected to drive the sharpest increases in case numbers over the coming decades.
In an earlier interview with PUNCH Healthwise, a Registered Dietitian and Public Health Specialist, Michael Ikujuni, said the constant consumption of foods that promote rapid weight gain could increase the risk of developing fatty liver disease and other metabolic disorders.
Speaking on the impact on children, the dietitian noted that excessive weight gain in infancy may predispose children to insulin resistance, early-onset type 2 diabetes, and liver-related complications, including fatty liver disease.
“Rapid weight gain may contribute to fatty liver disease,” he said, adding that overfeeding or introducing inappropriate food products could overwhelm a baby’s developing digestive system and lead to long-term health issues.
Ikujuni explained that babies who gain excessive weight are more likely to develop cardiovascular diseases such as hypertension and high cholesterol, as well as experience delayed motor development due to the extra weight.
He also stressed that excessive weight gain in early life could contribute to rising obesity rates and strain healthcare systems.
The dietitian called for increased public awareness and stronger regulation of food products, especially for children.
