Africa at the turning point: From managed expectations to strategic agency, By Wale Osofisan

Africa at the turning point: From managed expectations to strategic agency, By Wale Osofisan

Africa spent years carrying the weight of a bleak narrative. It was the period when the continent was routinely described as the hopeless continent, defined by conflict, fragility and unending crisis. That framing never captured the full story, but it shaped global attitudes and influenced policy choices in ways that were hard to ignore.

A different moment followed. Growth improved, new industries emerged and a young population began to reshape the economic landscape. Commentators declared that Africa was rising. It was a welcome shift, but the foundations were not yet deep enough to withstand global shocks.

Today, the world is moving through a profound transition. The old order is loosening, and a new one is struggling to take shape. Dr Kayode Fayemi, drawing on Antonio Gramsci, describes this as a moment when the old is dying and the new cannot yet be born, and in the space between the two, troubling symptoms appear. It captures the uncertainty of the present, but it also captures the opportunity. Africa stands at the centre of this transition. How the continent positions itself will shape its future for decades.

The global landscape is shifting in ways that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Power is no longer concentrated in one place. New centres of influence are emerging. Old alliances are being tested. Multilateral institutions are struggling to keep pace with the scale of global challenges.

Military spending has reached record levels. Conflicts and climate related disasters are displacing millions of people every year. Global debt has climbed to levels that place enormous pressure on developing economies. These forces reinforce one another, producing a world that is more contested and less predictable.

Africa feels these pressures. The pandemic erased years of development gains. Rising food and fuel prices pushed millions into poverty. Debt vulnerabilities have increased across the continent and strained fiscal policies. Yet this same moment has opened a wider space for African agency than at any time since independence. What matters now is how Africa chooses to respond.

The shift from Afro pessimism to Afro optimism was important, but it was incomplete. The optimism rested on growth that was not always progressively distributive and transformative. It relied on investment that did not always build durable systems and institutions. It celebrated potential without fully confronting the structural constraints that held the continent back.

When global conditions tightened, the optimism faded. Not because the fundamentals had disappeared, but because the foundations were not strong enough. Optimism alone cannot carry a continent. Agency backed up with coherent and context relevant strategies can.

Africa enters this new global moment with a combination of assets that no other region possesses together. These are not abstract endowments. They are strategic levers that can shape the continent’s position in the emerging world order.

A young and expanding population

Africa is the only region where the population is still rising at scale. The United Nations projects that the continent will reach roughly two and a half billion people by 2050. One in every four people on the planet will be African. The median age is 19. In Europe it is 43. In China and the United States, it is 38. This demographic profile is a source of long-term productive capacity at a time when major economies are ageing. By 2030, the world will face a shortage of more than 80 million workers. Africa will be the only region with a surplus.

Some may argue that artificial intelligence will reduce the need for labour. It will certainly change the nature of work, but it will not remove the need for workers. The world will still require teachers, nurses, technicians, builders, logistics professionals and care workers. These sectors cannot be automated away at scale. A young population remains an advantage if Africa equips its people with the skills to participate in the new economy.

A concentration of critical minerals

The minerals that will power the global energy transition are found in abundance on the continent. The International Energy Agency estimates that demand for cobalt, lithium, nickel and rare earths will rise sharply by 2040. Africa holds the overwhelming share of several of these minerals.

The continent accounts for roughly 90 per cent of global cobalt reserves, most of which are in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It holds 75 per cent of the world’s coltan, which is essential for semiconductors and digital devices. It has two thirds of global manganese, half of global gold and more than a third of global uranium. These minerals sit at the heart of electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy systems and advanced manufacturing. The global economy cannot transition without Africa. That reality gives the continent leverage that it has not yet fully exercised.

A strategic geographic position

Africa sits astride some of the most important maritime and digital corridors in the world. The Suez route carries about 12 per cent of global trade. The Gulf of Guinea is a major energy shipping zone. The Red Sea and the Horn of Africa are now central to global security calculations. More than one third of the world’s undersea internet cables touch African shores.

This geography places the continent at the centre of global commercial and security interests. In a world where supply chains are being reconfigured and great power competition is intensifying Africa’s location becomes a strategic asset.

Africa’s combined GDP is now more than $3 trillion. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), once fully operational, will create a single market of over 1.3 billion people. The World Bank estimates that it could lift 30 million people out of extreme poverty and increase intra African trade by more than 50 per cent. This is a story about scale. A unified African market strengthens the continent’s bargaining power, attracts long term investment and reduces the vulnerability that comes from fragmented national markets.

A reservoir of renewable energy potential

Africa holds nearly 40 per cent of the world’s solar potential. The continent has strong wind corridors and significant geothermal reserves. Yet it currently receives less than 3 per cent of global energy investment. As the world races to decarbonise, Africa’s renewable energy potential becomes a strategic advantage that can underpin industrialisation, regional integration and export competitiveness.

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