Sub-Saharan Africa’s fiscal position is expected to weaken in 2026, even as improved commodity prices offer some relief to external balances across parts of the region.
- +IMF projects Sub-Saharan Africa fiscal deficit at 3.2% in 2026
This is contained in the International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook titled “Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure.”
This is contained in the International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook titled “Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure.”
The Fund projects that the median fiscal deficit for Sub-Saharan Africa will widen to 3.2% of GDP.
This represents a slight deterioration compared to 2025, demonstrating continued pressure on public finances despite pockets of economic improvement.
The IMF’s projections point to a mixed macroeconomic picture, where external gains are not translating into stronger fiscal outcomes.
Overall, the data highlights an uneven recovery, with external accounts improving modestly while fiscal deficits continue to widen.
Fiscal and external balances in Sub-Saharan Africa have long been shaped by commodity cycles, subsidy policies, and limited revenue mobilisation capacity.
These longstanding issues continue to shape the region’s fiscal trajectory in 2026.
The IMF notes that even where external conditions are improving, fiscal vulnerabilities remain widespread due to spending pressures and policy constraints.
These dynamics highlight the tension between short-term economic support measures and long-term fiscal stability.
Nairametrics previously reported that the Federal Government had increased its planned borrowing for 2026 to N29.20 trillion following an expansion in the proposed budget size and fiscal deficit.
The new borrowing figure represents an increase of N11.31 trillion compared to the earlier projection of N17.89 trillion contained in the 2026 Abridged Budget Call Circular issued in December 2025.
Nigeria recorded a fiscal deficit of about N5.7 trillion in the first six months of 2025.
