Private sector growth weakens as PMI records first contraction in 16 months

Nigeria’s private sector slipped into contraction in April 2026, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 49.4 points, marking the first decline in business activity after 16 consecutive months of expansion, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The CBN stated that, “The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April 2026 stood at 49.4 points, marginally below the 50-point threshold, indicating a slight contraction in aggregate economic activity following sixteen (16) consecutive months of expansion.”

A breakdown of the composite index shows that the contraction was largely driven by weakening demand conditions and slowing business activity.

Output fell to 49.7, new orders declined more sharply to 48.4, while employment dropped to 49.6, all indicating reduced momentum across the economy.

Inventory levels also weakened, with the stock of raw materials index at 48.7, pointing to reduced purchasing activity by firms. However, supplier delivery time stood at 50.9, suggesting slightly improved supply chain efficiency despite the broader slowdown.

Out of the 36 subsectors surveyed, 19 recorded contraction, one remained unchanged, and only 16 posted expansion. Primary metals recorded the steepest decline, while forestry emerged as the fastest-growing subsector during the month.

The report also linked the moderation in business conditions to external pressures, including heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which may have disrupted supply chains and business confidence.

During the period surveyed, the industry sector recorded a PMI of 49.5 points, indicating contraction in manufacturing and production-related activities.

The report noted that the Industry Sector PMI at 49.5 points reflects a mild contraction, with underlying data showing that new orders and employment declined to 49.5 and 48.7 points, respectively. Output, however, stood at 50.2 points, suggesting that production held up despite weaker demand.

Further details show that raw materials inventory dropped to 46.8 points, pointing to reduced stock levels and cautious input purchases by firms. Supplier delivery time stood at 50.9 points, indicating improved delivery performance.

“Out of the 17 subsectors surveyed within the industry, nine recorded expansion while eight contracted, reflecting uneven activity across segments,” CBN said.

The services sector posted a sharper contraction, with its PMI at 48.8 points, ending 14 consecutive months of expansion.

According to the CBN, the services sector PMI stood at 48.8 points in April 2026, indicating a contraction in business activity.

Breakdown of the sector shows that business activity (output) stood at 49.2 points, new orders at 47.5 points, employment at 49.0 points, and inventories at 49.5 points, all below the 50-point threshold. Ten of the 14 subsectors recorded contraction, with transportation and warehousing posting the steepest decline, while educational services led expansion.

In contrast, the agriculture sector sustained expansion, with a PMI of 50.2 points, extending its growth streak to 21 consecutive months.

The report stated that at 50.2 index points, the agriculture sector sustained its expansion for the twenty-first consecutive month.

Within the sector, general farming activities recorded 50.5 points, while employment stood at 52.1 points, both remaining in expansionary territory. However, new orders (49.2 points) and stock of raw materials (49.0 points) declined, indicating emerging supply-side and demand pressures.

“Three of the five agricultural subsectors expanded, one remained unchanged, and one contracted, with forestry recording the strongest growth,” the apex bank said.