Nigeria’s major opposition parties are in crisis. Can they mount formidable challenge

Nigeria’s major opposition parties are in crisis. Can they mount formidable challenge

Nigeria’s two main opposition parties, ADC and NDC, are facing multiple internal crises, calling into question their ability to challenge or even defeat the ruling party, APC, in next year’s general elections.

Although Nigeria currently has 21 registered parties, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) are the two expected to pose formidable challenges to the ruling APC. This is partly because of their presidential candidates: Atiku Abubakar of the ADC and Peter Obi of the NDC.

Mr Abubakar came second in the last presidential election, while Mr Obi came third. Together, they had more votes than the eventual winner, President Bola Tinubu, in 2023. Though both men were in different parties when they contested in 2023, they are believed to still wield influence over millions of their followers. To be able to challenge and defeat the APC, each of the two parties would need to be formidable; a major challenge, largely caused by self-inflicted problems, especially their handling of party primaries.

At the heart of the crises facing the opposition parties is their inability to conduct credible primaries in many states as well as lingering court disputes, especially for the ADC.

The ADC entered 2026 with significant coalition momentum but fractured when key figures, including Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, exited for the NDC. The platform, anchored by veterans such as Atiku Abubakar, David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola, has since faced persistent factional challenges.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar [PHOTO CREDIT: Facebook]Rival claims over the party’s leadership triggered court interventions. INEC temporarily removed Messrs Mark and Aregbesola from its portal following Appeal Court orders earlier in 2026, but the Supreme Court’s intervention subsequently led to their reinstatement. On Monday, a Federal High Court judge ordered INEC to deregister the ADC and three others over claims that they no longer meet the requirement for registeration. The party is expected to appeal Monday’s judgement and may get reprieve at higher courts. However, it still faces several court cases over its registeration, leadership and conventions.

The crises in the party got worse after its presidential primary. Although Atiku emerged as the party’s candidate, Mr Amaechi and another aspirant publicly rejected the outcome, alleging widespread disenfranchisement and irregularities. The ADC on Monday named Mr Amaechi as its vice presidential candidate, a move that may placate the former Rivers governor.

Apart from the dispute generated by its presidenital primary, the ADC also faces crises resulting from its governorship primaries in several states, including Rivers, Oyo, Akwa Ibom, Kaduna, Kano, Benue and Adamawa. In Rivers, Mr Amaechi’s home state, rival factions laid claim to competing candidates, while appeals remain pending in several other states. Some aggrieved aspirants have threatened litigation or defection. The disputes over the governorship and legislative primaries in many states are so intense that about three weeks after the primaries, the party is yet to release the official list of its candidates.

However, the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, said efforts were being made to resolve outstanding appeals before candidates lists are finalised.

“We have time, and we will do the needful once this process is over,” he said.

The unresolved disputes present a significant challenge for the party. Parallel claims and pending appeals could trigger litigation over nominations, while resources that might otherwise be devoted to campaign preparation continue to be spent on internal disputes. Taken together, these issues raise questions about the ADC’s ability to present a unified front to challenge the APC.

Registered in February 2026, the NDC quickly absorbed high-profile defectors. Mr Obi emerged unopposed as the presidential candidate, with Mr Kwankwaso joined to the ticket as the running mate. Primaries concluded around late May 2026, but the party has faced multiple complaints of irregularities in many states. There has also been criticisms from sections of the ‘Obidient Movement’, a group that supports Mr Obi, over appointments, and the treatment of its prominent supporters such as activist Aisha Yesufu.

The crisis between the NDC leadership and the Obidient Movement worsened when the party’s founder and national leader, Seriake Dickson, publicly criticised the group, saying the party was doing Mr Obi a favour and should be commended and respected.

Mr Dickson, a former Bayelsa governor, met with Mr Obi on 12 June, after which he announced that they had “amicably resolved all the issues” and urged members to “stop the bickering and name-calling,” and to focus on 2027. Mr Dickson has blamed the Electoral Act’s mandatory direct primaries for many irregularities, while defending the platform as more than a vehicle for big names.

One of the NDC’s biggest challenges is converting the popularity of the Obidient and Kwankwasiyya movements into functional structures across Nigeria’s 774 local government areas. That task has been complicated by efforts to merge different political cultures and by disputes over power-sharing arrangements, particularly in Kano, where disagreements over a proposed 60-40 formula generated tensions among stakeholders.

Another potential flashpoint has emerged in Abia State, where documents reviewed by journalists and accounts from party insiders indicate that the chair of the Primary Election Committee submitted a candidate list directly to INEC on 30 May without routing it through the national leadership. Critics argue that such actions could trigger procedural disputes if conflicting nominations emerge.

The platform is also grappling with reconciliation efforts and demands for loyalty designed to discourage defections after the primaries.

Although NDC leaders project confidence and insist the party is ready for the next phase of the electoral process, these developments highlight lingering gaps and the challenges of building a nationwide political organisation at speed.

An indication that the NDC crises arising from its primaries in many states remains unresolved was a statement by the party’s spokesperson, Osa Director.

Last Tuesday, Mr Director said the party has not “released any official results of its primary elections in any state.” He asked Nigerians to “disregard any such list in circulation.”

As of Monday, neither the ADC nor the NDC has published its full candidate lists; although the parties still have some time before submitting the lists to INEC.