Democracy Day: Eight in 10 Nigerians say country on wrong track in new survey

As Nigeria marks Democracy Day today, a new nationwide voter sentiment survey suggests that public confidence in the country’s direction has fallen sharply, with nearly eight in 10 Nigerians saying the country is headed in the wrong direction and a majority already looking beyond the current administration toward the 2027 elections.

The findings, contained in SBM Intelligence’s first Voter Sentiment Tracker (VST) as seen by BusinessDay, paint a picture of a restless electorate grappling with economic hardship, insecurity, and declining confidence in governance.

The survey of nearly 1,000 respondents across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones found that President Bola Tinubu’s administration may be facing deep public discontent, while former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi currently enjoys the strongest favourability ratings.

According to the report, 80 percent of respondents believe Nigeria is moving in the wrong direction, resulting in a net favourability rating of -58.5 for President Tinubu, the lowest among the leading political figures assessed. Obi, by contrast, posted a net favourability score of +58.3, making him the only major candidate with a positive rating.

“President Bola Tinubu enters the 2027 race with the weakest favourability position of any candidate in this survey, a net score of -58.5 nationally. His handling of inflation, security, jobs and power is rated below “poor” in every zone except the Northwest. Across five policy areas, his average rating never reaches 2.1 out of 4” the report read.

Discontent with the current administration exceeds 88 percent in all regions except the SouthWest (60.3 percent) and Northeast (63.5 percent). Even in those zones, only about 18 percent of respondents say the country is moving in the right direction.

The survey also reveals that insecurity was the single biggest issue for many respondents, particularly in the Northwest, Southwest and Southeast, while respondents in the South-South were equally concerned about both the economy and security.

“The most important issue varies: insecurity dominates in the Northwest (74.5%), Southwest (71.3%) and Southeast (67.0%); the South-South uniquely combines economy and insecurity (68.6%); the Northcentral and Northeast have more balanced profiles” the report stated.

The Tinubu administration was rated on five policy issues inflation, tax, security, jobs, power, with the lowest performance rating in the Southeast (1.14) and highest in the Northwest (2.02), still below the midpoint of 2.5.

For a country celebrating 27 years of uninterrupted democratic rule, the findings raise fresh questions about citizens’ assessment of democratic governance and whether voters believe elected leaders have improved their quality of life.