Nigeria Records Highest 2026 Oil Output Despite Missing OPEC Quota

Nigeria’s oil production rises to highest 2026 level but remains below OPEC crude output allocation target.

Nigeria recorded its strongest oil production performance so far in 2026, as total liquid output rose to 1.66 million bpd in April from 1.54 million bpd in March, although crude output fell short of the 1.5 million bpd quota allocated to the country by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Latest production data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that crude oil production alone increased to 1.489 million bpd in April from 1.383 million bpd in March, reflecting a rise of about 7.7 per cent. OPEC does not consider condensates in its overall monthly output data.

In all, crude oil and condensate in April was 49.90 million barrels, representing an increase from the 47.93 million barrels recorded in March. On a daily basis, total liquid production rose from 1.55 million bpd in March to 1.66 million bpd in April, indicating an increase of approximately 7.1 per cent month-on-month.

In addition, total liquid production was 50,451,281 barrels in January. It then fell in February to 41,550,703 barrels, before rising again to 47,928,897 barrels in March and further to the 49,902,382 barrels in April.

For daily average production, it began at 1,627,461 bpd in January, dropped to 1,483,954 in February, then increased to 1,546,093 in March and rose again to 1,663,413 in April. By April, daily output had not only recovered but slightly exceeded January’s level, showing a gradual improvement after the February decline.

However, despite the improvement, the country still missed the OPEC production target, with the NUPRC data indicating that Nigeria’s average crude oil production in April represented 99 per cent of the country’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd.

Combined condensate production therefore rose to 174,872 bpd in April, compared to 163,251 bpd in March, representing an increase of roughly 7.1 per cent. The improved national output was driven largely by stronger production from key export terminals, particularly Bonny, Forcados, Bonga, Anyala-Maduand several offshore assets.

Bonny retained its position as Nigeria’s biggest producing stream in April, with combined crude oil and condensate production rising to 8.85 million barrels from 8.42 million barrels in March, an increase of about 5.1 per cent.

Also, Forcados posted one of the strongest recoveries among the country’s major streams during the month. Total output surged to 7.35 million barrels in April from 5.18 million barrels in March, representing a sharp increase of about 42 per cent.

Qua Iboe, one of Nigeria’s major export grades, however recorded a decline in output. Total production from the stream fell to 4.97 million barrels in April from 5.25 million barrels in March, representing a decline of about 5.4 per cent.

The NUPRC data further showed that some streams remained inactive or posted minimal production volumes during the period. The Aje field again recorded no production in April.

Overall, the April figures represented Nigeria’s highest production level since the beginning of the year and suggested continued recovery in the country’s upstream petroleum sector after years of operational disruptions caused by crude theft, pipeline vandalism, deteriorating infrastructure, underinvestment and force majeure declarations at several export terminals.

The improvement also indicated that ongoing security interventions around oil infrastructure and the restoration of key evacuation channels may be gradually stabilising production activities across the Niger Delta.

Nonetheless, Nigeria’s continued inability to fully attain the 1.5 million bpd OPEC crude oil quota underscores the fragile nature of the recovery and highlights the need for sustained investment, stronger pipeline security and improved operational efficiency across the sector.

Although Nigeria has now moved within less than 1 per cent of its OPEC allocation, sustaining current momentum will depend largely on the ability of operators and government agencies to prevent fresh disruptions and maintain stable production across major oil assets.