Nigeria could record an additional N6.8 trillion in oil revenue in 2026 as rising crude prices driven by the ongoing US-Iran conflict strengthen the country’s fiscal outlook.
- +BMI: Nigeria to gain N6.8 trillion from oil as GDP forecast hits 4.4% in 2026
This is according to BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, in its latest Sub-Saharan Africa market assessment for April, which also raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast.
This is according to BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, in its latest Sub-Saharan Africa market assessment for April, which also raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast.
The report highlights how higher global oil prices, alongside ongoing domestic reforms, are expected to support government revenues and improve macroeconomic stability despite lingering inflationary pressures.
BMI estimates that Nigeria’s fiscal position will benefit significantly from higher oil prices, with Brent crude now projected to average $78 per barrel in 2026.
BMI noted that Nigeria is less exposed to the economic disruptions from the conflict compared to other Sub-Saharan African economies, supporting its improved growth outlook.
The improved fiscal outlook is closely linked to structural reforms in Nigeria’s oil sector, particularly the removal of the fuel subsidy, which has allowed domestic prices to reflect global market conditions.
BMI added that while fuel price increases have raised concerns about inflation, the impact is expected to be temporary and manageable under current macroeconomic conditions.
Earlier, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) projected that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could deliver a massive oil revenue windfall to Nigeria, potentially reaching as high as N30.2 trillion if the conflict between Iran and Israel becomes prolonged.
Nairametrics reports that oil prices surged on Thursday as Iran intensified attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East.
Nairametrics previously reported that security, economic, and policy analysts said the ongoing Iran–Israel–US conflict has exposed significant weaknesses in Nigeria’s ability to anticipate, absorb, and respond to external shocks, warning that the country’s crisis-response “toolkits” are no longer adequate for today’s increasingly interconnected global risks.
The United States and Iran have failed to reach an agreement to end the ongoing conflict in the Middle East following 21 hours of negotiations.
