What’s behind surge in support for Reform and Greens across England? Five key takeaways
Local elections have fundamentally reshaped the political landscape in England.
Local elections have fundamentally reshaped the political landscape in England. Labour suffered heavy losses, losing ground to the Green party and Reform UK, while the Conservatives also sustained significant losses to Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats.
Reform and the Green party made significant gains, in results that laid bare an increasingly fragmented political system. Reform gained 1,349 council seats and control of 14 councils, while the Green party won 376 council seats, control of five councils, and took two mayoralties.
With both insurgent parties making inroads, what is behind the surge in their support?
So far, Reform’s vote in English council seats has grown the most in areas with greater socioeconomic deprivation, early analysis shows. The party received 30% of votes in the most deprived parts of England, compared with 20% in the least deprived parts.
Greens did best in areas with fewer people aged 65 or over, while Reform’s vote saw greater gains in areas with more retirees. Wards where less than 10% of people were over the age of 65 saw Labour take 32%, and Greens take 31% of the vote, while Reform, Conservatives and Lib Dems took about 11% each. In the small number of council wards where 40% or more people were over the age of 65, the reverse happened, with Reform on 31%, and the Conservatives on 26%.
In England, Reform had larger vote share gains in wards where fewer people had two or more A-levels – while the Green party did better, on average, in more educated areas. Reform had almost 40% of the vote in wards where less than 40% of people had two or more A-levels – far more than any other party (Labour was second with an average 23% of the vote across those wards). Meanwhile, fewer than 8% of people voted Reform in areas where more than 70% of people had at least two A-levels.
In England, the Greens did better in areas where more people rent. As of 8pm on Friday, the Green party had gained a larger vote share in areas with a higher proportion of renters (private and in social housing). Greens received an average of just 13% of votes in areas where fewer than one in 10 people rent. That rose to 23% in areas where at least 40% of people rent.
The Green party’s vote tended to increase more in English council wards with larger Muslim populations. At the last census, the Green vote share increased by four percentage points in wards where less than 2% of people were Muslim – but increased by 14 percentage points in areas that were 10% or more Muslim. Part of this increase will be because the party contested more wards.
