Hungary election live: voters head to the polls in contest that could see end of Viktor Orbán’s rule

Hungary election live: voters head to the polls in contest that could see end of Viktor Orbán’s rule

Today’s election comes 23 years to the day after Hungarians voted overwhelmingly to join the European Union, drawing comparisons to that historic vote and its influence on the future of the country.

“Now, on 12 April, once again, voters are not simply choosing between parties, but deciding the direction, identity, and future of Hungary,” Tisza’s Anita Orbán, no relation to the prime minister, said on social media. “In many ways, this election is a referendum on whether Hungary returns to European values.”

It was a hint of how much has changed in Hungary since Orbán took power in 2010. What followed was, in the words of Zoltán Kész, a former member of the Fidesz party, nothing less than a “coup in slow motion,” albeit one that eschewed tanks for lawyers and clientelism.

The rightwing populist government had used its time in office to steadily whittle away at the checks and balances that constrained its power: rewriting election laws to its own benefit, manoeuvring to put loyalists in control of an estimated 80% of the country’s media, and retooling the country’s judiciary.

Meanwhile, Budapest has become a hub of thinktanks and conferences aimed at amplifying the idea of Hungary, in the words of one local journalist, as a “Christian conservative Disneyland” where the global far right feels at home.

Not a regular observer of Hungarian politics? We’ve got you.

The EU’s longest-serving leader, Orbán has since 2010 turned Hungary into what he calls an “illiberal democracy”, declaring himself Europe’s defender of traditional Christian family values against an onslaught of western liberalism and multiculturalism.

His four successive governments have comprehensively eroded the rule of law in Hungary, packing the courts with judges loyal to him and turning up to 80% of the country’s media in effect into a propaganda machine for himself and his far-right Fidesz party.

He has become the EU’s disruptor-in-chief, battling with Brussels – which has suspended billions of euros in funding – over policies including on justice, migration, LGBTQ+ rights and, more recently, aid for Ukraine, which, along with sanctions against Russia, he has consistently blocked (including the latest €90bn loan).

Orbán is the EU’s most Moscow-friendly leader, continuing to buy Russian oil and gas and to meet Vladimir Putin since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Recent allegations that Budapest shared confidential EU information with the Kremlin have sparked EU outrage.

Orbán has inspired like-minded EU-obstructive leaders such as Slovakia’s Robert Fico and the Czech Republic’s Andrej Babiš, and boosted nationalist challengers such as France’s Marine Le Pen and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders.

In short, the election will have consequences far beyond Hungary, a country that accounts for just 1.1% of the EU’s GDP and 2% of its population but has, under Orbán, come to play a role on the international stage out of all proportion to its size.

For more Q&As on what it’s all about and who are the key players, check our explainer here:

Early turnout data point to an unprecedented mobilisation across Hungary with long queues at polling stations, which is almost certain to lead to a record-high turnout at the end of the day.

At 11am, the turnout was 37.98%, over 12pp higher than in 2022 at the same time of the day. At 1pm, it was at 54.14%, up from 40.01%. At 3pm, it was 66.01% – up from 52.75%.

While the exact maths behind it is somewhat complicated, it is generally assumed that a higher turnout should help the opposition, although it is very much and to be expected that Fidesz will try to mobilise its voters too.

And Viktor Orbán appeared to acknowledge the pressure, with a rallying cry to his supporters on Facebook earlier today:

“Lots of people are voting, this means one thing: if we want to protect the security of Hungary, not a single patriot can stay home!

The Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, cast his vote early this morning in Budapest, accompanied by his wife, Anikó Lévai.

Talking to journalists after the vote, the Fidesz leader, who could lose his position after 16 years in power, insisted he was “here to win,” stressing he “likes to win.”

He also dismissed the possibility of results being contested by the EU, saying “they have to accept the intention and the will and expressed opinion of the people.”

“They can’t disrespect the Hungarian people,” he said.

Asked to compare today’s vote to the historic election in 1990, he said “the context is different.”

“The question is not to [establish] democracy or not, but how to operate the democratically elected government.”

“We are heading towards major crises – not one, but several, coming together. So I think we need strong national unity to … resist the energy crisis, the financial crisis, the economic crisis [coming] towards us.”

Responding to a suggestion this could be his last election, he insisted: “I am a young man!”

Orbán also said it would have to be a “big” defeat for him to resign from the leadership of Fidesz.

Unlike many other countries, Hungary does not really have an election silence period, so some campaigning activity can still take place today.

But there are some caveats and restrictions that effectively mean that no more major events (that’s why both candidates held their final rallies last night) are permitted and no campaigning can take place near polling stations (specified as 150 meters from the main entrance). All posters in place before the polling day can remain there, too.

Having said that, people still come up with creative ways to make their views known to others: earlier today I saw a van driving in central Budapest, blasting Fidesz’s campaign song on full volume.

The voting has started at 6am this morning, and will close 7pm local time (6pm UK).

We should get some new polls with data from this week – not exit polls! – around then, but it’s worth taking them with more than a pinch of salt. I will bring you the numbers, but take them with caution.

Despite all the excitement around this election, the situation is so tight and the polls are so all over the place that we would be well advised to wait for the official numbers before drawing any definite conclusions.

First partial results should start coming in the first 60 minutes after the polls close, and we should get to about a half of all votes counted by 10pm local time, and over 90% as we approach midnight. So strap in, this rollercoaster may need a few hours to get to its final stop.

If the result is particularly tight, we could then get into tricky situation as the last bit – the overseas votes – won’t be counted until, erm, Saturday.