‘That’s a bad combination’: why Australia may be in for a slushy snow season

There was optimism across Australian alpine resorts this week as their social media channels filled with footage of snow flurries that arrived just in time for the opening of the ski season this weekend.

“We couldn’t be more excited,” said the Instagram account of Perisher, the southern hemisphere’s biggest ski resort in Kosciuszko national park in New South Wales, as hands swept the fresh snow from outdoor tables.

While the spectacular wintry scenes will bring enthusiasm, the outlook for the rest of the winter – and the coming decades – is not quite so positive.

With an El Niño looking likely to form in the coming weeks, the odds are stacked in favour of drier and warmer conditions though winter and spring.

“Overall with that dry and warm outlook and the El Niño, it does not favour good deep snow cover for skiers,” said Jonathan How, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology.

“It tips the odds against a good season because of the less rainfall and high temperatures. That’s a bad combination.”

The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast for the winter months suggests below average snowfall for Australia’s alpine regions (with the possible exception of Mount Mawson in Tasmania) while both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above average.

“But these long-range forecasts can’t predict the day-to-day weather systems. We will still get those low pressure systems and we will see winter systems move through,” How said.

Snow was falling at resorts this week ahead of Saturday’s opening day, but How said forecasts for next week were suggesting daytime temperatures of up to 10C.

“Next week we start to see temperatures rising again. That means the snow might not stick around very long,” How said.

He said for skiers, a strategy of being ready to respond to winter storms when they come “is definitely a good idea”.

For decades, climate scientists have been predicting that Australia’s alpine areas will get warmer, making the future challenging for ski resorts. Observations are already showing that snow depths have been falling.

Two years ago, scientists at the Australian National University and University of Innsbruck used a new climate model – SkiSim2 – to see what greenhouse gas emissions could do to 11 of Australia’s main ski resorts. As well as tracking temperatures, the model also accounts for snowmaking.

“The model showed us that the average resort season length would drop by between 15% and 17% by 2030,” said Ruby Olsson, one of the ANU researchers who is studying the effects of climate change on Australia’s Alps.

Australian ski resorts have long used use a range of snow-making technologies to supplement what falls from the sky. But Olsson said the warmer it gets, the harder it will be for resorts to adapt.

“There is a really stark difference between the emissions scenarios. The more we can reduce our emissions, the cheaper and more effective our adaptation will be,” she said.

Dr Andrew Watkins, a research associate at Monash University, is the former head of climate prediction at the bureau and is a science adviser to the campaign group Protect Our Winters Australia.

Watkins has skied at Victoria’s Mount Hotham since the mid-1990s and already has his season pass for this year.

Back in the 90s, “we would not get out of bed for less than a metre of snow”, but he said most skiers see those as good conditions these days.

“What’s changing is we’re getting fewer of those regular top-up snowfalls and more falling in bigger dumps,” he said.

“Climate change loads the dice for less snowfall and El Niño loads the dice for a shorter season. The killer for snow are warm rain events and that’s why we are seeing the end of the season come a bit earlier – we get spring rain, instead of spring snowfall.”

The one silver lining to an El Niño, he said, was that the drier air and cooler nights that could come “is good for snow-making”.

Perisher is the home resort of professional freestyle skier and sports commentator Mia “Miff” Rennie.

After a year off after her third major knee surgery, the 22-year-old is excited to be getting out on the snow this year.

But in only 10 years, she says she has seen a “drastic” drop in the snowfall and the length of the season. Internationally, she says seasons are shortening around the world.

“Especially we see it in the southern hemisphere – it’s not even a question. It’s deeply concerning. It’s black and white for me. We need to be putting a stop to fossil fuels and use renewables to have these winters and these seasons.”

That said, she can’t hide her excitement for the coming season.

“I’m there if there’s snow on the ground and I hope everyone can get out there and experience that winter magic.

“Hopefully the season works out better than they think.”

Josh Elliott, the chief executive of Snow Resorts Australia, which represents many of the major resorts across the country, said that alpine conditions “have always been variable from season to season, and resorts are accustomed to planning for a wide range of weather outcomes”.

He said snowmaking had been part of the Australian ski industry for more than 35 years and some resorts had invested in “next-generation all-weather snowmaking systems, which can produce snow at temperatures of up to 20C above zero and provide a level of operational certainty that was not previously available”.

He said: “No industry can predict exactly what conditions will look like decades into the future. The key question is whether it continues to adapt and evolve for the future, and Australia’s alpine sector has demonstrated a long-term commitment to doing exactly that.”