World Bank says Nigeria, Angola gain as energy shock hits African peers

Nigeria and Ang ola are set to emerge as rare beneficiaries of the energy price surge triggered by the conflict in the Middle East, even as most Sub-Saharan African economies face weaker growth, rising inflation and mounting fiscal pressures, according to the World Bank.

… projects Nigeria to grow by 4.1% in 2026

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, released Thursday, the World Bank said higher energy prices are expected to provide support for oil-exporting economies, particularly Nigeria and Angola, while placing significant strain on countries that rely heavily on imported fuel.

The lender expects growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to ease slightly to 4.0 percent in 2026 from an estimated 4.1 percent in 2025, reflecting the impact of higher commodity prices and weaker global demand linked to the Middle East conflict.

The 2026 growth forecast for the region was revised downward by 0.3 percentage points from the projection released in January, as the negative effects of the conflict outweigh the benefits of ongoing reforms and recent trade agreements.

According to the report, the impact of the Middle East conflict will be uneven across the continent.

“Higher energy prices will benefit oil exporters, particularly Angola and Nigeria,” the World Bank said.

For most other African economies, however, the energy shock is expected to raise fuel, fertilizer and transportation costs, pushing inflation higher and worsening food price pressures.

The report noted that non-oil-exporting economies are likely to experience slower growth than previously expected as rising consumer prices reduce household spending and increase production costs for businesses.

While some African governments have introduced temporary measures to cushion households from rising costs, limited fiscal resources are restricting broader responses.

Countries including Ghana and Ethiopia have expanded or temporarily maintained fuel subsidies, while Angola has delayed planned subsidy reforms. Senegal has adjusted administered prices and transfer programmes to help vulnerable households cope with rising living costs.

The World Bank said financial conditions across the region have also tightened as sovereign bond yields increased, currencies weakened and stock markets stagnated following the outbreak of the conflict.

Despite the worsening external environment, the region showed signs of resilience in early 2026. Economic activity was supported by stronger-than-expected commodity prices for precious metals, copper and coffee, which boosted exports and government revenues.

Lower inflation and improved agricultural output in several countries also allowed some central banks to gradually ease monetary policy, helping support domestic demand.

Structural reforms in some of the region’s largest economies have further strengthened investor confidence and encouraged private investment.

The World Bank highlighted reforms in Nigeria and Ethiopia, including exchange-rate liberalisation, improvements in public financial management and other business-friendly measures. In South Africa, improved energy availability has supported economic activity.

Recent trade developments are also expected to provide support for the region. The United States extended the African Growth and Opportunity Act through the end of 2026, while China eliminated tariffs on all African imports, measures aimed at improving Africa’s integration into global trade.

However, the lender warned that these positive developments are unlikely to fully offset the impact of the Middle East conflict.

Growth among industrial commodity exporters is projected to rise only marginally from 3.1 percent in 2025 to 3.2 percent in 2026 despite higher commodity prices, as weaker global demand and domestic constraints limit gains.

The World Bank noted that growth forecasts for both Nigeria and South Africa have been revised downward, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict and persistent structural challenges.

Looking beyond 2026, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to recover and average 4.4 percent in 2027 and 2028, assuming geopolitical tensions ease and security conditions improve in fragile economies.

Still, the World Bank warned that the pace of expansion will remain insufficient to significantly reduce poverty. Real per capita GDP growth is projected at just 1.6 percent in 2026 before improving modestly to an average of 2 percent in 2027 and 2028.

The report also cautioned that job creation is expected to lag behind the region’s rapidly growing labour force, while food insecurity could worsen across many countries amid rising costs and declining international development assistance.

For now, the energy shock is creating a widening divide across Africa, with oil exporters such as Nigeria and Angola benefiting from higher crude prices while much of the rest of the continent struggles with the inflationary consequences.