Intra-African trade to hit $230bn by 2026 on AfCFTA boost

Intra-African trade is on track to reach $230 billion by 2026, driven by the accelerated implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), with overall continental trade projected to grow 10 percent this year, according to a new report by the Afreximbank.

The report, titled ‘African Trade and Economic Outlook 2026,’ explained that despite geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. traffic, African economies have shown significant resilience.

It noted that the continent’s output expanded by 4.2 percent in 2025, up from 3.4 percent in 2024, on the back of robust domestic demand, strong export performance, service sector growth, and renewed infrastructure investments.

However, Africa’s economic landscape remains vulnerable, given its overdependence on commodities, which exposes it to high prices.

The report showed that the continent’s total trade in 2025 reached $1.4 trillion, with intra-African trade accounting for roughly 18 percent of total trade, supported by the ongoing implementation of AfCFTA.

The report noted that Africa is well-positioned to enhance its economic growth prospects through a gradual recovery from recent global shocks.

According to the report, Africa’s GDP growth is expected to rise marginally to 4.3 percent in 2026 before expanding to 4.4 percent in the medium term.

“This recovery will be supported by increased global demand for African exports, disinflation, and the implementation of structural reforms to diversify economies across the continent,” the report said.

“Furthermore, non-resource-intensive economies are projected to outperform other groups, with their average growth accelerating sharply to about 7.5 percent in 2026, providing further support to Africa’s growth performance in the medium term,” the report added.

The report assessed how African countries can capture more value from commodities to support industrialisation and trade. It reviewed commodity price volatility and global demand and the structure of Africa’s commodity trade, alongside the role of regional integration in value addition.

Yemi Kale, group chief economist & managing director, research, African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), in his forward note, said AfCFTA represents more than a trade agreement but an economic stabilisation mechanism in a fragmenting world.

“By expanding intra-African trade, harmonising standards, and reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers, the continent can reduce its exposure to external demand shocks while building regional value chains in agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, automotive manufacturing, energy, and digital services,” he said.

“Greater intra-regional trade does not imply disengagement from global markets; rather, it strengthens Africa’s bargaining position within them,” he noted.

Kale emphasised that integration alone is insufficient without financing, saying that “trade finance is a critical transmission channel between macroeconomic policy and real-sector expansion.”

“In periods of global monetary tightening, liquidity constraints can suppress otherwise viable commercial activity.”

“African firms, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, remain disproportionately affected by trade finance gaps. Bridging these gaps is essential not merely for trade expansion but for industrialisation and employment generation.”

He noted that strengthening the continent’s financial architecture is a macroeconomic priority and not a sectoral intervention.

He explained that the outlook report systematically traces these interconnections, evaluates global growth dynamics and monetary conditions, and assesses their spillover effects on African economies.

It also examines evolving trade patterns across regions and sectors and analyses financial vulnerabilities that may amplify or dampen resilience. “By situating Africa within global realignments, rather than treating it as a peripheral case study, the report highlights both structural constraints and strategic openings.”