Air cargo demand rises 6% despite US-Iran conflict

Global air cargo demand recorded a six per cent increase in May 2026 despite the lingering impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a development that underscores the resilience of the aviation industry amid shifting trade patterns and operational challenges.

The latest data released by the International Air Transport Association on Monday showed that total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, grew by 6.0 per cent compared to the corresponding period in 2025. International operations performed even better, recording a 6.5 per cent increase.

The report also revealed that cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres, rose by 1.9 per cent year-on-year, while international capacity increased by 2.8 per cent.

The performance comes at a time when global supply chains continue to adjust to conflicts, inflationary pressures and fluctuating fuel prices, with airlines increasingly relying on cargo operations to sustain revenues and facilitate international trade.

However, the report noted that the Middle East remained the only major region to post a decline in cargo volumes as the ongoing conflict continued to disrupt aviation operations across the region.

Commenting on the figures, IATA’s Director-General, Willie Walsh, said the strong demand reflected the industry’s ability to adapt to changing market realities despite significant geopolitical headwinds.

“Air cargo demand grew 6 per cent year-on-year in May, with Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North American regions all reporting above-trend growth. Carriers in the Middle East, however, reported a combined contraction of 8.9 per cent year-on-year as war-related impacts continued.”

Walsh expressed cautious optimism over the outlook for the remainder of the year, noting that improving macroeconomic indicators were providing support for sustained growth.

“May’s strong performance coupled with macroeconomic factors gives cautious optimism for air cargo’s prospects over the remainder of the year. Trade and manufacturing output are both growing. Airlines have adapted operations to align with shifting demand patterns and supply chain needs.

“Meanwhile, yield growth and higher load factors are helping to recoup higher fuel costs. It’s still a tough year, particularly as Middle East uncertainties weigh heavily on parts of the industry, but robust demand and airline resilience are clear,” he said.

The association explained that global trade continued its upward trajectory, expanding by five per cent year-on-year and extending an impressive streak of 25 consecutive months of annual growth.

According to IATA, the sustained increase in international trade has remained one of the strongest drivers of cargo demand, as manufacturers and logistics companies continue to depend on air freight for high-value and time-sensitive shipments.

The report also pointed to developments in the energy market, noting that jet fuel prices declined by 16.3 per cent month-on-month in May. Nevertheless, fuel costs remained a major concern for airlines, with prices still standing 93.5 per cent higher than they were a year earlier.

Although the reduction in fuel prices provided some operational relief, airlines continue to grapple with elevated costs while balancing competitive freight rates and expanding capacity.

IATA further stated that global manufacturing activity remained supportive of cargo demand during the period. The Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 53.5 in May, indicating continued expansion in factory output.

However, export demand remained relatively weak, as the New Export Orders Index stayed below the neutral 50-point mark at 49.6, suggesting that cargo growth was being driven by specific trade corridors rather than broad-based improvements in global exports.