EXPLAINER: How the Premier League title is decided and why Man City lead Arsenal
As the 2025/26 season enters its final stretch, the race for the Premier League title is extremely close.
As the 2025/26 season enters its final stretch, the race for the Premier League title is extremely close. Manchester City and Arsenal FC are level on 70 points after 33 matches, with identical records. Yet, City sit top of the table, and the reason comes down to how the league separates teams when points are the same.
In England, the first factor is total points. When teams are tied, the next step is goal difference, which is the number of goals scored minus the number conceded. If that is also equal, the next factor is total goals scored.
From the current table, both City and Arsenal have the same goal difference of +37. However, City have scored more goals overall, with 66 compared to Arsenal’s 63. That slight edge is enough to put them ahead at the top of the table.
This explains why every goal matters in the closing weeks of the season. It is not just about winning matches, but also about how many goals a team scores and concedes. A single goal can change positions, especially when the race is this tight.
The system used in England is not the same everywhere. In Spain’s La Liga, teams level on points are separated first by their head-to-head results. This means the matches played between the tied teams carry more weight than overall goal difference.
Italy’s Serie A follows a similar approach, where head-to-head records are also important. In some cases, if teams remain tied at the top after all criteria, a playoff match can be used to decide the champion.
For now, Manchester City’s stronger attack gives them the advantage, but with at least five matches still to play, the title race remains wide open.
