Polls open in historic byelection in Makerfield that could determine Keir Starmer’s future – UK politics live
Hello and welcome to the UK politics live blog.
Hello and welcome to the UK politics live blog.
The people of Makerfield, a constituency sitting just outside of Wigan, have at last begun voting in what could be one of the most consequential byelections in British political history.
Since Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to allow the mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham a clear run at returning to parliament – and the opportunity to become prime minister – residents have been inundated with party campaigners and reporters.
Yesterday Burnham urged people to “vote to change politics” and said he would take the “fight as high as I can possibly take it”.
But, despite the seat being considered one of Labour’s safest (it has been red since its creation in 1983), the governing party face a stiff challenge in the shape of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Although the Reform candidate Robert Kenyon’s campaign has been bogged down with the revelation of historic sexist social media post and, shall we say, less than impressive media performances under scrutiny, pollsters have the contest a close run thing.
It comes as Starmer on Wednesday said he was willing to offer the mayor of Greater Manchester a “big” job in his government, should Burnham win when Thursday’s votes are counted.
But allies of Burnham said he was not interested in the offer, insisting “the benefit Andy has is the wind of change for not having been associated with the government’s failings”.
Burnham and his allies are reported to be hoping for a “coronation” in which Starmer stands aside, rather than a leadership contest, which they believe would be damaging to the Labour party’s brand, according to the Times.
But the prime minister has repeatedly made it clear he has no intention of standing down and says that he will fight any challenge to his leadership.
What is certain is that the next 24 hours will prove to be a pivotal moment for this Labour government and, in particular, the prime minister.
Please be aware that the Guardian, like other news outlets, is not allowed to report details of campaigning or election issues while polls are still open today – they close at 10pm.
But you can follow our blog for all the latest in UK politics, as well as I am sure plenty of photos of dogs at polling stations. Because, let’s face it, that really is the true meaning of any British election.
An election that could shape the future of UK politics for years to come is taking place on Thursday. But it is only happening in one small part of north-west England, with little more than 70,000 people eligible to vote.
Why? It is a question with a number of answers, some connected to the structure of the British political system, others much more topical.
Voters in Makerfield, a largely suburban constituency on the edge of Wigan, Greater Manchester, are choosing a new MP after the incumbent stood down. The candidate for the ruling Labour party and favourite to win, Andy Burnham, is the mayor of Greater Manchester and a former MP.
If Burnham wins, it is widely assumed that he will launch a campaign to unseat Keir Starmer as Labour leader and thus UK prime minister, or persuade Starmer to stand down. If things go as expected, the UK could have its seventh prime minister since 2017 in just a few weeks or months.
Those who don’t pay much attention to politics could be forgiven for not being fully on top of this, but the UK could have a new prime minister soon – potentially within weeks.
So how quickly could Andy Burnham replace Keir Starmer, if Burnham wins Thursday’s Makerfield byelection? Actually, quite quickly, but only if events go in a particular way. And there are plenty of alternate outcomes.
The Labour party rulebook sets out that if an MP wants to challenge a sitting party leader, they must first be nominated by at least 20% of the parliamentary party (currently 81 MPs), as well as by at least 5% of all local branches or at least three party-affiliated groups, of which a minimum of two must be unions.
Any contenders who meet the threshold go forward to a vote of party members, assuming there is more than one challenger.
It also says that if a sitting leader is challenged, they do not need to meet these requirements and are automatically in the members’ vote – if they choose to do so.
There is a scenario in which Burnham is elected as Makerfield’s MP, Starmer decides he will step down immediately – perhaps after a mass of senior cabinet ministers tell him they will resign if he does not – and no other challengers come forward.
In our opening post, I did promise you some dogs at polling stations.
And reader, pictures of our four-legged friends exercising their democratic right have been flooding in from the various news agencies.
Here are the highlights so far:
Stay tuned for more dogs, more polling stations and more pictures of both as the day rolls on.
Andy Burnham’s campaign has been forced to talk ministers out of resigning as early as this weekend to avoid Keir Starmer’s government descending into chaos amid fallout from the Makerfield byelection, the Guardian can reveal.
As they prepare for a potential change of leader in the event he beats Reform on Thursday, Burnham’s team is increasingly concerned a rapid collapse of Starmer’s administration would mean further instability for the country.
Senior campaign figures believe Starmer should be given time to set out a timetable for his departure, with Burnham not planning to announce any challenge in the immediate aftermath of the result.
However, some ministers are “trigger happy” and have already proactively offered to quit, Burnham allies revealed, suggesting that several below cabinet level could resign over the coming days to try to pressurise Starmer.
“We’re trying to hold that back. We can’t have a Boris Johnson-style collapse. If they’re trying to force Keir’s hand with a kamikaze approach it will ultimately be counterproductive,” a senior campaign figure said.
The prime minister has insisted he will fight any challenge, believing he has a duty to the country, even though some of his closest allies predict the leadership crisis may reach a tipping point where he has no option but to stand down.
Starmer’s allies have discussed a “100m hurdles” strategy which involves throwing obstacles in Burnham’s way – such as the danger of losing the Manchester mayoralty, the fragile geopolitical situation and potentially a job offer.
Supporters of Burnham expect senior cabinet ministers to tell the prime minister over the weekend to agree to a handover of power, rather than fighting a bitter leadership contest that could stretch on for months.
Up to 3,000 Labour campaigners are expected to descend on Makerfield for Andy Burnham, prompting fears among organisers that the hordes of activists may end up overwhelming voters during Thursday’s byelection.
