FTSE upgrade sparks N1.36trn stock investors windfall in 72 hours

The Nigerian equities market saw a massive surge within 72 hours following the FTSE Russell decision to upgrade Nigeria from “Unclassified” back to Frontier Market status.

Specifically, the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) rose by approximately N1.36 trillion within a three-day window following the announcement, which triggered a “buy” signal for both local and foreign institutional investors.

“We see the FTSE decision as a further catalyst reinforcing the ongoing rally and supporting our bullish 2026FY outlook,” Meristem research analysts said.

The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) has maintained a steady climb, recently crossing the historic 200,000 basis points mark.

The newest rally has pushed the total market capitalisation well above N130 trillion, continuing the momentum from a stellar first quarter (Q1) where the market gained nearly N30 trillion.

The stock market opened for four trading days in the trading week to Friday April 10 as the Federal Government declared Monday April 6, 2026, as Public Holidays to commemorate the Easter Celebration.

In the holiday shortened week, the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalisation appreciated by 1.03 percent and 1.05 percent to close the week at 203,770.43 points and N131.166 trillion respectively as against preceding week’s close at 201,698.89 points and N129.806 trillion.

“The NGX All-Share Index is already at 203,161.81 (+30.56 percent YtD), with market capitalisation at NGN130.60trillion following a 51.19 percent gain in 2025. This has been supported by easing inflation, relative currency stability, a 50 basis points (bps) Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) cut, strong earnings, and attractive dividend yields. We expect the reclassification to provide an additional tailwind to market performance going forward,” Meristem analysts added.

“We expect the reclassification to improve investor confidence, attract fund inflows into the Nigerian market, boost foreign participation and strengthen buying activity, particularly in liquid, fundamentally sound stocks.

“Net foreign flows should also remain more stable following the growth to N1.40trn in 2025 versus N364.41billion in 2024 and N174.80billion (-10.71 percent) in 2023, the year of the downgrade. We expect these inflows to support accretion in foreign reserves, improve market liquidity, and strengthen FX stability,” Lagos-based Meristem analysts further said.

Being “Unclassified” since September 2023 effectively kept Nigeria off the “menu” for many global pension funds and asset managers. The return to the Frontier Market category serves as a stamp of credibility, signaling that Nigeria’s market infrastructure—including its T+2 settlement cycle and regulatory oversight—now meets international standards.

In the four-day trading week, all other indices finished higher with the exception of NGX Insurance and NGX Growth which depreciated by 3.64 percent and 1.82 percent respectively.

Twenty-five equities appreciated in price during the review week, lower than 29 equities in the preceding week. Fifty-four equities depreciated in price, lower than 57 equities in the preceding week, while 67 equities remained unchanged, higher than 62 recorded in the preceding week.

“Market direction is likely to remain anchored on liquidity flows from dividend expectations and portfolio rebalancing across sectors. The strong rally in banking stocks suggests continued accumulation as investors position ahead of final dividend qualifications and payments.

“Additionally, sustained institutional interest in oil & gas and industrial names could support further upside. However, intermittent profit-taking—particularly in recently outperformed counters—may introduce pockets of volatility. Overall, sector rotation and momentum-driven trades are expected to remain the key drivers of price action,” Vetiva Research analysts said in their April 10 note to investors.

FTSE Russell’s decision confirms that Nigeria has addressed major hurdles, specifically capital repatriation and FX liquidity. The clearing of the $7 billion FX backlog by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was a prerequisite for the status upgrade.

The upgrade (effective September 2026) means that global funds tracking the Frontier Index must now rebalance their portfolios to include Nigerian stocks, leading to early speculative buying.

Investor interest has been concentrated in heavyweight stocks that typically anchor index weights: GTCO, Zenith Bank, and FBNH (buoyed by the recently concluded N4.7 trillion additional capital exercise), as well as Seplat Energy and Dangote Cement.

At N135 per share GTCO closed the week, it nears its 52-week high of N136.5.

Likewise, Zenith Bank stocks at N112 per share as at Friday April 10 are approaching record 52-week high of N113.3.

First Holdco Plc, another major beneficiary of the global fund reallocation rallied to N52.05 on Friday April 10, nearing its 52-week high of N57.

The stock market recorded total turnover of 3.361 billion shares worth N151.948 billion in 229,442 deals in the review week, in contrast to a total of 2.856 billion shares valued at N113.597 billion that exchanged hands in the preceding trading week in 215,287 deals.

The Financial Services Industry (measured by volume) led the activity chart with 2.303 billion shares valued at N90.467 billion traded in 98,175 deals: thus contributing 68.54 percent and 59.54 percent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

The Services Industry followed with 264.146 million shares worth N1.977 billion in 12,638 deals, and the ICT Industry, with a turnover of 214.578 million shares worth N9.791 billion in 28,183 deals.

Trading in the top three equities, namely Access Holdings Plc, Wema Bank Plc and Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (measured by volume), accounted for 1.124 billion shares worth N49.451 billion in 27,886 deals, contributing 33.45 percent and 32.54 percent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

The NGX in the review week listed Access Holdings Plc 1,057,958,025 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each arising from its Private Placement of 1,975,308,641 at N20.25 per share which was 53.54 percent subscribed. With the listing of the additional shares of 1,057,958,025, the total issued and fully paid-up shares of Access Holdings Plc have now increased from 53,317,838,433 to 54,375,796,458 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each.