ANALYSIS: Guinea’s May elections end its transition – but will they bring stability?

ANALYSIS: Guinea’s May elections end its transition – but will they bring stability?

On 31 May, 6.8 million citizens will choose their Members of Parliament (MPs) and municipal councillors in Guinea’s legislative and local elections. The polls are part of the ongoing process of returning to constitutional order, following the December 2025 presidential election won by President Mamady Doumbouya with 86.72% of the vote.

After Guinea’s 2021 coup, a transition timetable was agreed with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 2022. But although the country has made institutional and political progress in a region facing a crisis of democracy, the elections remain controversial.

On the positive side, this month’s polls mark the implementation of the bicameral system introduced following the 2025 constitutional referendum. The new 87-member Senate, together with the National Assembly, aims to better represent Guinea’s regions and promote dialogue, national unity and the preservation of Guinean customs and traditions.

Two-thirds of senators will be elected by regional and municipal councillors, and the remaining third by the president. The creation of a Senate has been criticised as a way of maintaining political patronage. It could also lead to longer administrative delays, increased financial costs associated with running two chambers, and risks of institutional deadlock.

The National Assembly – whose legislative function has been carried out by a non-elected National Transitional Council during the transition – will comprise 147 MPs, up from 114 previously. One-third will be elected through proportional representation on a national list, and the remaining two-thirds through a single-round majority vote in single-member or multi-member constituencies.

Successful elections on 31 May should restore legitimacy to local authorities. Since the dissolution of municipal councils in 2024, special delegations appointed by the government have replaced municipal councillors elected in 2018.

The local elections are proving highly contested, with inter- and intra-party rivalries surrounding candidate lists. In theory, these polls should strengthen citizen participation in local governance because the September 2025 referendum decided that independent candidates can now stand. But true citizen participation will require sufficient resources and an effective decentralisation policy.

The polls also reflect a desire to promote women’s effective participation in the electoral process. The constitution establishes the promotion of gender parity by requiring that women occupy at least 30 per cent of elected positions in national, regional and local decision-making.

In line with this, the electoral code says candidate lists for municipal and legislative elections must include at least 30 per cent women, arranged in a zebra system, with alternating male and female names. For these elections, the representation of female candidates has reached 31% on the majoritarian legislative lists and 29% on the local election lists.

While all these advances are noteworthy, several obstacles remain that could undermine the credibility of the elections and the country’s democratic trajectory.

There are doubts about the impartiality of the electoral management process because, as with the September 2025 referendum and December 2025 presidential polls, the General Directorate of Elections in the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralisation (MATD) is responsible for organising this month’s vote.

The rejection of several opposition party lists and approval of those in the presidential coalition gathered around the Generation for Modernisation and Development movement reinforces these doubts.

Equally controversial is the validation of candidacies from the National Transitional Council, as well as former ministers of the transition. While the constitution does not explicitly exclude them, the transitional charter prohibits all current MPs and members of the transitional government from standing in elections that end the transition.

Another problem is that the 31 May elections exclude the parties that shaped Guinea’s political history. In March, 40 political parties were dissolved following an MATD-led evaluation process. Among them were those of former presidents Alpha Condé, Lansana Conté and Ahmed Touré (independence leader), and past prime ministers Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Touré.

This decision marked the beginning of a reconfiguration of Guinea’s political landscape, as evidenced by the emergence of new political forces. These include the Generation for Modernisation and Development movement and more modest political groups that have strengthened their support base, like the Democratic Front of Guinea.

This dynamic is fuelling fears of a return to a one-party system, contrary to the principle of political pluralism established in 1991 when the shift towards democracy started. It is likely to affect the composition of municipal councils and Parliament, raising the risk of one-sided political institutions, weak checks and balances and the deterioration of democratic quality.

The dissolution of long-standing opposition parties comes amid criticism of the authorities over the shrinking of civic and political space. This stems from the banning of protests, recurring abductions and disappearances of dissenting voices and their relatives, and the closure and control of media outlets.

The 31 May elections are a vital part of the transition. Unlike other post-coup regimes in the region, Guinea’s administration has demonstrated a genuine willingness to return to constitutional order by organising elections. But the context in which polls are being held could undermine the country’s democratic gains – reinforcing the point that elections cannot be considered an end in themselves.

The only guarantee of stability is socio-political and institutional reform that enables citizens’ views to be heard and allows all key stakeholders in the country to participate in public governance.

Aïssatou Kanté is a researcher, and Félix Fodé Bongono is a Bosch Research Fellow in the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Regional Office for West Africa and the Sahel.

(This article was first published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish.)