I stopped checking the weather forecast – and got a series of wonderful surprises
When I heard on the radio that more than half of British people would consider cancelling an outing if they saw a 40% chance of rain all day on their weather app, I felt seen.
When I heard on the radio that more than half of British people would consider cancelling an outing if they saw a 40% chance of rain all day on their weather app, I felt seen. I, too, am a slave to my app. Not that I would ever make a decision based on one whole-day percentage. I pore over three-hourly breakdowns for chances of rain versus minutes of sunshine. If rain is on the cards, I check the probable millimetres. Less than one? I may well throw caution to the wind. Speaking of which, wind speed and direction must also be considered, along with overall and “feels like” temperatures. For the cherry on top, I’ll compare notes with a loved one’s app if they use a different one, quietly mistrusting theirs, and simmering in silent rage if theirs wins.
I’ll admit, though, that my compulsion to check my app (I long ago chose WeatherPro, which I knew nothing about, but liked its layout and name) is borderline neurotic; I fret over probabilities and outfit appropriateness, when I could simply step outside for real-time hyper-local accuracy. I can lose procrastinatory hours consulting long-range forecasts, or checking the weather in Melbourne (where my sister lives) and holiday destinations I have no immediate plans to visit.
Businesses, meanwhile, are complaining that misread apps are costing them money. In March, more than 80 outdoor attractions, including Chester zoo and the Eden Project, wrote to the Met Office complaining that a headline graphic of a raincloud on an app puts visitors off in droves. “Most users glance at the top-line symbol and plan their day accordingly,” the businesses said in an open letter, with Chester zoo calculating that this can cost it up to £137,000 in a day. Are weather apps running, maybe even ruining, our lives? Will I get soaked, boil or freeze without one? I challenged myself to a week without checking mine to find out.Day one: SaturdayIt’s a sunny morning and I dash out to yoga in a light, unlined shacket. The gamble pays off when afterwards it’s warm enough to sit outside a cafe. What a lovely surprise! I dedicate the afternoon to relaxing in the garden but as soon as I recline with my headphones on, a hefty cloud blocks the sun and I’m cold. Are the heavens about to open? No idea, so I put my hoodie on and continue with my guided meditation. Soon enough the sun pops out again and I end up spending the best part of three hours sun- and cloud-bathing. I’m loving the freedom and serendipity of not trying to control and optimise every moment. Had I known how much cloud would blow over, or that it wasn’t really hot, I might have spent all day indoors, without the bumblebees and the breeze and the hope.
Trevor Harley, a psychologist and author of Head in the Clouds: How the Weather Affects Our Minds and Mental Health, agrees that with all the evidence of exposure to nature boosting mental health, “it is better to be outside sensing the weather directly than it is to be indoors looking at a screen”. Checking it to a certain extent is perfectly rational: “We do need to plan,” says Harley. “If showers are forecast I try to fit taking my little dog for a walk into one of the more dry spells. The problem is we take it all too far.”
Weather apps further entice us with control, says Harley. “In this country in particular, the weather is very changeable. Apart from it’s likely to be warmer and sunnier in summer than it was in winter, anything can happen. August might be record-breakingly hot or a wet, miserable write-off – we just don’t know.” Weather apps, he says, help us cope with the uncertainty. “And I think that there’s a broader psychological point that it is an increasingly uncertain world, and we’re made anxious by climate change, and looking at these apps gives us an illusion of control that perhaps is absent from the rest of our lives.”
Day two: SundayI have a two-hour, unfamiliar drive ahead, for which I would usually check the weather conditions. Plus I have sartorial considerations for an 80th birthday lunch. Last time I was allowed to check my app, torrential rain was forecast for today, which lingers in the back of my mind as I step outside to sniff the air with the cat (my new morning routine): grey, chilly and windy. I bring a brolly, and make sure I wear a top nice enough to be able to take my cardigan off, should the sun pop out. As it turns out, it doesn’t rain all day and I have lovely drives there and back, and when the sun shines in the evening, once again it’s a wonderful surprise. Having no expectations pays off when it comes to the British weather.
Weather apps can lead us to false expectations anyway. According to a survey by Harris Poll, in response to the letter to the Met Office from businesses, 37% said they only check the headline weather symbol for the entire day. But often this symbol will contain rain, even if there’s no chance of it falling in the precise window of a planned outing. This is because weather apps often have what’s known as a wet bias in how they present the weather, to avoid disappointment. The BBC weather forecaster Matt Taylor told Radio 4 recently the corporation’s own research found that people would rather be told of any chance of rain than see a dry day advertised and then get wet. “We are risk averse,” says Harley. This feels very glass half empty. Fifty-five percent of people consider changing plans if the app gives an overall 40% chance of rain – even though, says Sarah Beams, the managing director of Harris Poll, “if they called it 60% chance of being dry people might then think differently”. According to the poll, 60% of us have ditched a day out only to find the weather was fine after all.
Day three: MondayThe heating has come on so it must be cold. But it’s sunny! With black clouds! The decision of what to wear feels simpler with only my observations to go on. I venture out in jeans, T-shirt and a light mac. It rains, I put my hood up, no biggy.
It’s nice being my own authority. Which app is the most reliable anyway? In 2024, the Reading University meteorologist Rosie Mammatt compiled an accuracy top five (based only on a snapshot over a short space of time) which had the Met Office in third place, followed by Apple and then the BBC, with AccuWeather second and the Weather Channel first. The latter uses a mix of sources including the Met Office, but attempting to compare accuracy is complex and nuanced. When Reading meteorologists went on to compare the BBC and the Met Office, the BBC (shortly before it went back to taking Met data) was more confident with rain whereas the Met was slightly better on temperature, though both were generally good. Harley goes even deeper himself with his own weather station to log conditions where he lives, but for those not ready
