Want to boost the UK’s birthrate? Fix the housing crisis, research suggests

Politicians hoping to persuade young people in the UK to have more children should prioritise tackling housing affordability, according to research by the Resolution Foundation thinktank.

There has been growing concern in recent years about Britain’s declining birthrate, given the long-term fiscal pressures of supporting an ageing population.

Sharp falls in the number of children have also led in some cases to the closure of schools as rolls have shrunk, including in London, where some secondaries are next in line to be hit after primaries have shut.

In a new report, titled ‘Bye Bye Baby’, the thinktank explains how rapidly change has happened. The proportion of women who are not yet mothers by age 30 has risen from 48% for those born in the late 1980s, for example, to 58% for those born in the early 1990s.

The analysis finds the shift has been most pronounced among non-graduate women, aged 25-29. One in three had no children in 2011, which had risen to more than half (54%) by 2023.

“This has happened alongside falling partnership rates and a major shift away from home ownership towards costly private renting and living with parents, both of which make starting a family harder,” the report says.

In recent years, the share of this group – non-graduates in their late 20s – who are in private rented accommodation, which can be costly and insecure, has doubled, from 16% in 1998-99, to 33% in 2023-24. Home ownership over the same period halved.

It remains unclear whether this group will go on to have children in future years.

But the Resolution Foundation said there may be a financial aspect to their decision-making. It found that among 32-year-olds who are not yet parents, for example, twice the proportion of those in the lowest quarter of earners said they intended to remain permanently childless, compared with those in the top quarter of earners.

Politicians have suggested a range of policies aimed at persuading young people to have children. The significant expansion in free childcare and the availability of breakfast clubs at primary schools introduced by Labour is aimed at making it easier to juggle parenthood and work.

The leader of the Reform party, Nigel Farage, has meanwhile called the declining birthrate an “existential crisis”, and promised to increase the married tax allowance “to encourage people to have children, to make it easier for them to have children”.

However, the Resolution Foundation’s research suggests focusing on the housing struggles facing many young people may ultimately be a more successful approach.

“Deciding whether to have children is a deeply personal choice, but it’s clear that financial constraints are at play too,” said the thinktank’s senior economist, Charlie McCurdy.

“Policymakers should look to address the financial barriers that are hindering young people’s ability to start a family – such as increasing housing affordability and opportunities to get on the housing ladder – to make parenthood more achievable for those who want it.’’

It recently suggested a system of taxpayer-backed loans to help potential first-time buyers afford the deposit on a property, helping to lower their monthly costs.