March inflation climbs 15.38%, halting 11-month disinflation trend

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose slightly to 15.38 percent in March 2026 from 15.06 percent in February, ending an 11-month disinflation trend, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released on Wednesday.

…Food inflation stands at 14.3%

The report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that food inflation, the largest component of the inflation basket, accelerated for the second month to 14.31 percent, up from 12.12 percent in the prior month. On a monthly basis, prices rose 4.2 percent, the steepest increase since January 2025.

At the divisional level, the three major contributors to the headline inflation were Food and non-alcoholic Beverages: 5.55 percent, Restaurants & Accommodation Services: 3.26 percent, and Transport: 1.80 percent; while the least contributors were Recreation, Sport, and Culture: 0.00 percent, Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco, Narcotics: 0.02 percent, Insurance and Financial Services: 0.02%.

The report also showed that food inflation rate in March 2026 was 14.31 percent on a year-on-year basis, lower than 25.22 percent recorded in March 2025. Also, on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.17%, down by 0.52% points from February 2026 (4.69%).

The bureau attributed this to the rate of change in the average prices of Water Yam, Ginger (Fresh), Cassava Tuber, Groundnuts (Shelled), Irish Potatoes, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon) – Dried Ungrinded, Tomatoes (fresh), Cassava Flour sold loose, among others.

State-level analysis of the food index in March 2026, showed that food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Bayelsa (33.35%), Sokoto (28.02%), and Adamawa (21.67%), while Kano (4.29%), Oyo (4.86%), and Katsina (7.48%) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis.

On a Month-on-Month basis, however, March 2026 Food inflation was highest in Sokoto (11.78%), Niger (8.59%) and Gombe (8.10%), while Katsina (0.09%), Ogun (0.77%), and Adamawa (1.30%) recorded a decline in Food inflation on a Month-on-Month basis.

Also, core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 16.21 percent in March 2026 on a year-on-year basis and on a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 4.03% in March 2026, up by 3.14% compared to February 2026 (0.89%).

In March 2026, the all-items inflation rate on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Bayelsa (27.37 %), Sokoto (26.03 %), and Bauchi (23.67%), while Osun (5.25%), Kano (9.85%) and Kaduna (10.38%) recorded the lowest rise in Headline inflation on a Year-on-Year basis.

On a Month-on-Month basis, however, March 2026 recorded the highest increases in Zamfara (10.77%), Bauchi (9.37%) and Sokoto (9.05%), while Lagos (1.54%), Akwa Ibom (1.80%), and Rivers (1.89%) recorded a decline in the Month-on-Month inflation.

“In analysing price movements under this section, it should be noted that CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns that differ across states and locations.

“Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state, making interstate comparisons of consumption baskets inadvisable and potentially misleading,” said Adeyemi Adeniran, Statistician-General of the federation.

Adeniran explained that following the completion of the recent rebasing exercise, the CPI report is centred on a new CPI base year of 2024 and a weight reference period of 2023. Hence, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 135.40 in March 2026, and reflects a 5.4-point increase from the preceding month.